10Y BoE bonds dollar Dow eurostoxx FX high yield investment grade nasdaq pound S&P 500


Translation: this is not a drill, dammit.

Just keep listening to all the people telling you that these days are “opportunities,” ok? That’s what this is. This is an “opportunity”. Just like Monday was an “opportunity”. And just like last Friday was an “opportunity”.

Got that? Call your local broker or maybe ask the folks on Twitter. “Believe me.”


Come on, Harry! “I’m advising all my clients to get in on this, and get in heavy!” 


And look, some of you are listening because by God, you’re still piling into what amounts to the same damn short vol. vehicle that blew up on Monday. Here, look what you’re doing:



Thursday was a fucking bloodbath. Period. Everything was for shit. The S&P is now down 10% from its January 26 peak. Translation: this is not a drill, dammit.


This is what “you might be fucked” looks like:


This was the second time this week that the major averages have fallen ~4% in a single day:


And the second time this week that the Dow has plunged 1,000 points or more (let that sink in):


The VIX was back to 34:


HY spreads blowing out:


IG spreads blowing out:


The bond selloff is looking like it wants to get worse although 10Y yields topped out at 2.88, after what was looking, there for a minute, like it might get really ugly.


GBPUSD surged on a hawkish BOE, but gave it back (and by the way, that hawkish BOE message seemed to underscore the notion that central banks aren’t yet ready to step in to rescue you):


Dudley’s not gonna help you right now:

So I guess I was wrong:

Europe was monkeyhammered lower after Wednesday’s rally:


European tech shares were hit especially hard:


The VStoxx is right back to its highest levels since Brexit after falling on Wednesday:


The SHCOMP looks like it’s going into a goddamn death spiral, having fallen for three consecutive days to its lowest level since August:


Thursday’s losses came after the latest trade data from the world’s engine of global growth came in surprisingly narrow, exacerbating pressure on the yuan which plunged the most since the 2015 deval.


Emerging market shares are getting pummeled and the CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index is surging:


Oh, and everyone’s favorite EM debt fund has fallen to its lowest since last summer:


For your moment of zen, here’s Trump reminding you that you can always pray. And if you’re long (or inexplicably short vol.) we recommend you do just that…


8 comments on “Harry.

  1. monkfelonious

    I just read over at CNN this: “Selling your stocks now will only lock in losses”, with the sub title of;” Market volatility is a value investor’s best friend.” For me, I’m pretty happy with bailing early. There is something about being 97% in cash that feels pretty good even if like a stopped clock, its only right twice a decade. I could never understand this ‘pry my dead hands’ of stocks when getting out then getting back in is rather inexpensive, at least in an IRA trading account.

  2. This one belongs in the Hall of Fame, H.

  3. Thanks – love the article and the graphs.

    Late cycle correction. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this bottom out somewhere around the 200 DMA, ie. ~13% below that Jan 26 peak, then turn up for another assault on the summit. If folks think this feels rough, just wait for the real bear shit storm that will likely start before end 2018 and will occupy probably all of 2019…

    In that sense, actually this is a drill.

    • Partying just like 1999, the floor will drop away later after another leg higher. This is not the end. This is a fire at the casino where a few of the games got too hot, but the entire casino is not ready to blow up just yet (6 to 12 months down the road).

    • unless the robots just keep selling

  4. …at least if you are over 50% cash already, then it’s a prepper session.

  5. Caution! When trump says pray you are assuming on bended knee and folded hands …. wrong.

    In trump’s world that would be PREY.

  6. Pingback: Are Junk ETFs About To Get Stress Tested As High Yield Cracks? - Financial Consultant

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