‘Crisis’ Averted.

First of all, Donald Trump declared a national public health emergency for opioids because “if you really think about it” this is the worst drug crisis in “world history”:

Quick fact check on that from G. Anand Anandalingam:

While 33,000 people died from overdosing on opioids in 2015, the crack epidemic in the late 1980s, killed around 94,000 per year.

So again, Trump even lies when it’s not necessary. And the reason is simple: he has to make everything about him.

There was “movement” on tax reform today, but you’re reminded that, despite tweets about “passing” something, they haven’t really “passed” anything. This is what happened:


That just means there will be no Senate vs. House GOP battle on the specifics. But this is still an issue:


And no decision has been made about 401k deductions. Here’s the bottom line from BBG:

Now that the budget blueprint has been adopted, a hard reality will set in as the business community and others realize how much of the tax bill will involve closing loopholes and changing their credits and deductions, said Senator Bob Corker, a Republican member of the Senate Budget Committee. He said that will be “80 percent of the work.”

Nevertheless, any movement is good movement and any day that goes by without Trump jeopardizing the whole thing with his Twitter account is a good day.

Stocks were green again so you know, the “crisis” of two-way price action has been averted. The Nasdaq did close lower (#sad – although the earnings we got after the bell bode well for tomorrow):


The dollar rose buoyed by (more) Taylor speculation, the falling euro, and tax reform hope, while Treasurys fell. Panning out a bit helps here so you can capture that 2.47 we hit on 10s on Wednesday:


Three-week low for gold as the dollar is ascendant:


Gold traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are bearish for the first time in 4 weeks. Survey results: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 8 Neutral: 6

Bank stocks rose to their highest in a decade:


Record high for JPMorgan while BofA hit its highest since October 2008.

Really bad day for drug distributors as things went downhill fast on news that Amazon now has a wholesale pharmacy license in at least 12 states.


Speaking of Amazon:

  • 3Q EPS 52C, EST. 4C

It’s back above $1,000 in AH trading.

Things are starting to get dicey as shit in biotech land:


Best day for Twitter in forever.


Here’s the analyst wrap on that:

 STIFEL (Scott Devitt)

  • Rising spending among the company’s largest ad buyers and daily audience growth could lead to a return to revenue growth by early 2018 when Twitter faces “easing comps”
  • Still, Twitter faces significant challenges in returning to sustained, double-digit revenue growth, especially as emerging platforms like Snap and Pinterest gain prominence
  • Increased Ebitda forecasts for 2018 and 2019 make the stock’s valuation appear more reasonable
  • Upgrade to hold from sell; PT to $17 from $12

MOFFETTNATHANSON (Michael Nathanson)

  • Despite the slightly improving trends, Twitter remains a sub- scale company and the stock is overvalued with M&A unlikely to materialize at these levels
  • “We still aren’t sure the live video pivot is the right move for the platform or a meaningful revenue catalyst”
  • Direct response advertising is not a real opportunity for Twitter
  • Sell, PT to $14 from $13


  • Twitter’s 3Q results demonstrate that the company is making progress on its turnaround but want to see more consistent execution on user growth, engagement and monetization
  • Live video continues to gain steam and it could be the most important factor in returning to revenue growth
  • Progress toward GAAP profitability could make Twitter more interesting to a broader range of potential buyers
  • Neutral, PT to $20 from $17

PIVOTAL (Brian Wieser)

  • Twitter’s earnings report provided confidence that the company is on track to resume revenue growth
  • Encouraged by average growth in spending among different segments of advertisers, international growth, particularly in Japan, and growth in the company’s data and other activities, including MoPub
  • Hold, PT to $19 from $17


  • Daily average users re-accelerated and there were some improvements in underlying ad trends, but it’s important to note that profitability benefited from “aggressive” near-term cost cutting and revenue growth is probably more than two quarters away
  • Staying on the sidelines until monthly active users re- accelerate, clarity on path to revenue growth and/or significant increase in video ad spending
  • Neutral, PT to $19 from $16


  • Amid lackluster revenue, Twitter is managing to change the story with a massive Ebitda surge
  • This may facilitate patience on revenue front, but it doesn’t change underlying concerns over the business
  • Remain unsure of the sustainability of a turnaround or the potential for a viable acquirer
  • Neutral

Draghi succeeded in putting a dovish spin on the taper, driving the euro sharply lower:


So this will still be growing, just at slower pace:


The weaker euro and the dovish bow the ECB put on the taper was good news for European equities. The DAX had its best day since September 11 and closed a new all-time high:


The IBEX was a rollercoaster, soaring initially on reports that Puigdemont was set to call an election instead of declaring independence, moving above pre-referendum levels after the ECB, and then paring gains after Puigdemont appeared to say he actually won’t call an election:


Here’s the EuroStoxx and the CAC40:


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One thought on “‘Crisis’ Averted.

  1. The broader risk remains to the upside, pending the weekly close per my last post. On the daily, it’s broken up above the channel, the top of which is now former resistance turned support. Only a close below that, currently 23060, would a signal a further near-term correction.

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