“…game theory suggests that the North Korean leadership has a strong incentive to bring forward the final phase of the Game of Chicken.”
There have been all sorts of labored attempts to explain how this isn’t all Trump’s fault and because nothing is ever entirely attributable to a single factor, those efforts are not totally in vain. That said….
Well, fast forward another five months and we’re supposed to believe that all will be revealed in less than two weeks.
HOUSE PASSES FIRST HARVEY ASSISTANCE PACKAGE OF $7.85B
HOUSE PASSES BILL TO FUND FIRST TRANCHE OF HURRICANE HARVEY AID
Whatever the case, the assumption here is that this will get done come hell or high water (with the latter having already arrived in Texas and the former well on its way between North Korea and Irma).
WHITE HOUSE’S COHN SAYS JOBS REPORT NOT DISAPPOINTING
WHITE HOUSE’S COHN SAYS WE’RE VERY PLEASED WITH ECONOMY
“InformationTechnology has been the primary driver of above-average fund returns versus their benchmarks in 2017 (Exhibit 5). The average large-cap mutual fund is overweight Info Tech by 144 bp, the largest overweight across all sectors.”
Ok, I don’t know how much figurative “stock” you put in Mitch McConnell’s Monday promise that there is “zero chance” of Congress not raising the debt ceiling by late September, but it’s at least plausible to suggest that however vacuous, the Senate Majority Leader’s comment helped buoy risk assets (i.e. literal stocks) on Tuesday. Taken together with…
“… it is reasonable to think the repricing has not run its course.”
Indeed, bragging about record highs on the Dow has become a favorite pastime of a President whose other leisure activities include berating lawmakers, painting the free press as the enemy of the people, and saying “thank you!” to Twitter bots that he didn’t realize were fake accounts.
But we would caution that you have now run out ahead of your fairy godmother…
“If the market is underpricing the uncertainty with respect to the outlook of US monetary policy, we are even more concerned that it seems totally impervious to the risk of two potentially disruptive, if not dangerous, Games of Chicken likely to unfold in the summer and the beginning of the fall.”
“Beneath this optimism, however, we are struggling with narrowing profit margins and a flattening yield curve. These factors typically occur at the later stages of a business cycle.”
He was “tired of winning” anyway…