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Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 20, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A King In Washington

    September 20, 2026
  • The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

    September 19, 2026September 19, 2026

Markets

‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • How Crack Spread Reflexivity Kills The Equity Bull Market

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

Over A Barrel

September 14, 2026September 14, 2026

The Bab Al-Mandab Now Belongs To The Houthis

September 11, 2026September 14, 2026

$5,000 ‘Trump Dividend’ Is Classic Populist Inanity

September 10, 2026September 11, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

GM Gets “Lockheed Martin’d” In Trump Tweet

January 3, 2017

Look out, it’s a Twitter tape bomb!

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1 Comment on GM Gets “Lockheed Martin’d” In Trump Tweet

“Grinchs” Should Have “Stayed In Bed”, SocGen Says

January 3, 2017

“The Grinch and Scrooge had better stay in bed this morning”…

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Why January “Is Like Breakfast”

January 3, 2017

“Calendars shouldn’t in theory matter, but they sure do”…

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Daily Kickstart (Back To Work Edition)

January 3, 2017

At long last, the holidays are over. I like the peace and quiet as much

Read More

oil, OPECLeave a Comment on Daily Kickstart (Back To Work Edition)

Why Fed Policy Mistakes Are Now Inevitable

January 2, 2017

As noted earlier on Monday evening, we’re seeing Catch-22s everywhere these days as central banks are

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2 Comments on Why Fed Policy Mistakes Are Now Inevitable

CNN Publishes Trump Book With Title Trump Can’t Spell

January 2, 2017

“Unprecedented”…

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2 Comments on CNN Publishes Trump Book With Title Trump Can’t Spell

An Inflationary Catch-22

January 2, 2017

The perpetual thorn in policymakers’ side during the post-crisis era has been inflation or, more

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1 Comment on An Inflationary Catch-22

Time To Throw In The Towel? China Hints At Lower Growth

January 2, 2017

In “not very exciting but nonetheless important” news, PBoC adviser Huang Yiping has gone on

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1 Comment on Time To Throw In The Towel? China Hints At Lower Growth

Reflections On The “Deeply Troubling” End Of Globalization

January 2, 2017January 2, 2017

So, how many times in the past month have I written something about the possible

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1 Comment on Reflections On The “Deeply Troubling” End Of Globalization

Daily Kickstart (European Stocks Get Lift From PMI Data, But Political Jitters Persist)

January 2, 2017January 2, 2017

“While the strong end to 2016 is encouraging news the manufacturing revival clearly remains vulnerable to political risk.”

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“Fertile Ground For Conspiracies And Revolutions”

January 1, 2017

Whether or not we, as a society, can overcome the temptation to surrender our future to a succession of demagogues remains to be seen. And indeed we may be but one tragedy away from seeing the momentum turn irreversibly in favor of politicians who seek to capitalize on fear and intolerance.

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2 Comments on “Fertile Ground For Conspiracies And Revolutions”

How The Alt-Right Blogosphere Is Destroying Society

January 1, 2017

Unconcerned with the real-world ramifications of their disingenuous online banter, they revel in the fact that they can exploit uneducated readers, conspiracy theorists, and those who generally lack critical thinking skills for their own personal gain

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13 Comments on How The Alt-Right Blogosphere Is Destroying Society

Reader “Submission” (Get It?)

January 1, 2017

“I always knew he was very smart!”

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1 Comment on Reader “Submission” (Get It?)

“Keepin’ It Real”

January 1, 2017January 1, 2017

“He just seems to have these swans on his mind”…

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“It’s The Economy, Stupid”: January Preview

January 1, 2017

Don’t forget that next week, we’ll get the latest NFP number which will be used as fodder for Trump no matter how it prints.

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“All Bets Are Off”

December 31, 2016October 13, 2021

“If all bets are off then there can’t be any money, can there?”

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On The Perils Of Trading In A 140-Character World

December 31, 2016October 13, 2021

Judging from some of the mail I get and from some of the conversations I’ve

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2 Comments on On The Perils Of Trading In A 140-Character World

Trump Tweets Absurd New Year’s Eve Message To Haters

December 31, 2016October 13, 2021

President-elect Donald Trump has tweeted some truly ridiculous things over the last several days while the

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2 Comments on Trump Tweets Absurd New Year’s Eve Message To Haters

(Re)Balancing Act Bolsters Treasurys Into Year End

December 30, 2016October 13, 2021

One question going into a week in which the tape was painfully thin across the

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Mayhem In Money Markets: China Warns Investors Not To “Underestimate” The Danger

December 30, 2016October 13, 2021

The complexity of the situation shouldn’t be underestimated. That’s a quote from the PBoC emphasizing

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Why One Analyst Is High On High Yield

December 30, 2016October 13, 2021

High yield had a hell of a year in 2016. In fact, at least as

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1 Comment on Why One Analyst Is High On High Yield

Your 2017 Guide To European Political Upheaval

December 30, 2016October 13, 2021

I’ve spent a lot of time brow-beating no one in particular about markets’ apparent lack

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3 Comments on Your 2017 Guide To European Political Upheaval

“That’s Why I’m Richer Than You”: Executives Miss Out On Dimon Rally

December 30, 2016October 13, 2021

Earlier this month, I took a look back at Jamie Dimon’s decision to buy nearly

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China: “No Float For You!”

December 30, 2016October 13, 2021

There’s been no shortage of speculation about the veracity of China’s GDP data which many

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“Loads Of Emotions And Lots To Ponder”

December 29, 2016October 13, 2021

I’m inclined to believe that those of us who fancy ourselves black swan watchers are

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2 Comments on “Loads Of Emotions And Lots To Ponder”

Excuse Me, But Your Tails Are Getting Fatter

December 29, 2016October 13, 2021

I talk quite a bit about tail risk. One of the biggest mistakes an investor

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2 Comments on Excuse Me, But Your Tails Are Getting Fatter

Don’t Be A Monkey: Changing The Meaning Of “Actionable” Research

December 29, 2016October 13, 2021

Generally speaking, people seek out the type of analysis and commentary that validates their own

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2 Comments on Don’t Be A Monkey: Changing The Meaning Of “Actionable” Research

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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  • Mr. Lucky on A King In Washington

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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