Chart Check (Dow 20,000: Some Historical Context)

We summited Mount Siegel on Wednesday in an opening flurry that saw the Dow pierce 20,000 for the first time ever.

Call it “hope” run wild. Call it rampant optimism. Call it peak Trump.

Hell, call it whatever you want, just as long as you also call it what it is: “bigly”.

Below, find some historical context from Deutsche Bank.

Via Deutsche Bank


As a spurious aside this morning we’ve looked at when other landmark Dow numbers were first achieved and how long it took between each 1000 increment. Firstly the Dow only hit 1000 for the first time in January 1987. 5000 was reached in November 1995, 10000 in December 2003 and 15000 in May 2013. This is the quickest ever between round number thousand point increments as it only took 64 calendar days to go from 19000 to 20000. Obvious as the number gets bigger the % gains are smaller and therefore more achievable so this number is a little meaningless. However we show the graph of this in today’s PDF and also one showing how long each 10% increase took working back from today’s 20000 level. The data goes back to 1900. The average length of time has been 1.9 years. On 7 occasions it’s taken more than 4 years and we’ve annotated these on the graph. Working backwards these were the 4.7 years to April 2011, 5.5 years to August 2003, 18.1 years to October 1982, 4.4 years to March 1950, 18 years to July 1942, 8.8 years to June 1924 and 10 years to September 2015. If anyone wants to enter a competition to say when the next 10% hurdle will be hit (22000) I’ll save the answers and reveal the winner when that day arrives assuming I’m still gainfully employed. If we see a repeat of the period up to 1982 or 1942 I’ll be over 60 at that point.



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