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Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 20, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A King In Washington

    September 20, 2026
  • The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

    September 19, 2026September 19, 2026

Markets

‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • How Crack Spread Reflexivity Kills The Equity Bull Market

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

Over A Barrel

September 14, 2026September 14, 2026

The Bab Al-Mandab Now Belongs To The Houthis

September 11, 2026September 14, 2026

$5,000 ‘Trump Dividend’ Is Classic Populist Inanity

September 10, 2026September 11, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

“Traders Get Religion When They’re Making Money”

January 6, 2017

How important is Friday’s NFP print? Well, probably not that important. Or at least it wouldn’t

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1 Comment on “Traders Get Religion When They’re Making Money”

Daily Kickstart (Jobs Edition)

January 6, 2017

Overnight I quoted Goldman on the way to explaining why a short yuan bias was

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China Making Preparations For (Trade) War With Trump: Bloomberg

January 5, 2017January 5, 2017

“China’s central government has compiled list of possible retaliatory measures against U.S. companies in event President-elect Donald Trump starts a trade war.”

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3 Comments on China Making Preparations For (Trade) War With Trump: Bloomberg

Thursday Chart Check (Gipper Edition)

January 5, 2017

Is it all down hill from here?

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Bad Loan Securitizations To Soar Incredible 1,700% In 2017

January 5, 2017

In other words, we’re talking about securities secured by very unsecure loans.

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1 Comment on Bad Loan Securitizations To Soar Incredible 1,700% In 2017

$16 Trillion In Global Trade Captured In One Incredible Video

January 5, 2017January 5, 2017

“Trade has never dominated politics in the way it has this year”…

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Here’s What Happens After A Tax Holiday

January 5, 2017

What does this do for the “silent majority”? Well, not much.

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2 Comments on Here’s What Happens After A Tax Holiday

Thursday Chart Check (Smell Test Edition)

January 5, 2017

What happens when this mean reverts?

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3 Comments on Thursday Chart Check (Smell Test Edition)

PBoC: “Listen To Me Shorts, We’ve Got Your Head In A Vice”

January 5, 2017

“Don’t make me be a bad guy”…

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3 Comments on PBoC: “Listen To Me Shorts, We’ve Got Your Head In A Vice”

“This Is Not Your Happy Place”

January 5, 2017January 5, 2017

How can we attribute a plunge in the dollar to a dovish reading of the Dec. FOMC minutes?…

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1 Comment on “This Is Not Your Happy Place”

More Yuan Weakness “Inevitable,” One Bank Says

January 5, 2017

“We think tighter capital controls are stop –gap measure that may plug one hole but won’t prevent another one emerging elsewhere”…

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Daily Kickstart (China FX Edition)

January 5, 2017

Whither the yuan…

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1 Comment on Daily Kickstart (China FX Edition)

What Could Go Wrong?

January 4, 2017January 4, 2017

If history is any guide, a lot…

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4 Comments on What Could Go Wrong?

Greenback Plunges After Fed Minutes

January 4, 2017

On the heels of the Dec. Fed minutes (which hinted at a fairly gradual pace

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Donald Trump’s Many Bankruptcies: A Retrospective

January 4, 2017January 4, 2017

Judging by the poll numbers, Donald Trump has already succeeded in rendering nearly half of the American electorate morally bankrupt. Fortunately, he knows a thing or four about bankruptcies.

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8 Comments on Donald Trump’s Many Bankruptcies: A Retrospective

“Violent Swings”: What Yellen, Greenspan, And Dimon Say About Rising Rates

January 4, 2017

Earlier today, I highlighted some recent commentary out of Deutsche Bank who lists among their

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Wednesday Chart Check Part 2 (Funding Crunch, Chinese Style)

January 4, 2017

Whatever you do, don’t listen to anyone who says you shouldn’t concern yourself with a couple of basis points here or there in markets that are some 8,000 miles away…

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3 Comments on Wednesday Chart Check Part 2 (Funding Crunch, Chinese Style)

Wednesday Chart Check (EU Head Scratcher Edition)

January 4, 2017January 4, 2017

Riddle me this Batman…

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1 Comment on Wednesday Chart Check (EU Head Scratcher Edition)

One Trader’s Warning: The “New Normal” Will Not Feel “Normal” At All

January 4, 2017January 4, 2017

“These won’t be markets that grind in one direction, panic, then quickly recover as soon as the central banks decide enough is enough. Everything is in play and the story lines anything but clear.”

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1 Comment on One Trader’s Warning: The “New Normal” Will Not Feel “Normal” At All

These Are The Two Main “Risk Scenarios” For Markets

January 4, 2017January 4, 2017

There are a lot of things you can say about Heisenberg, but one thing you

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1 Comment on These Are The Two Main “Risk Scenarios” For Markets

A Thought Experiment As Trump’s Secretary Of State Gets $180 Million “Retirement” Package From Exxon

January 4, 2017

Let’s do a little thought experiment. Hillary Clinton is elected US President. Clinton – who,

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1 Comment on A Thought Experiment As Trump’s Secretary Of State Gets $180 Million “Retirement” Package From Exxon

Daily Kickstart (Welcome Back Japan Edition)

January 4, 2017

Markets have been rallying quite strongly on this notion of fiscal hope but, as we

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January 20, 2017: The Day Democracy Died

January 3, 2017January 3, 2017

The Donald Trumps, Marine Le Pens, and Frauke Petrys of the world represent a very real threat to Western democratic values. The ideologies they preach are poisoning the gullible who mistakenly believe they’ve found their champions in nationalist candidates pushing a noxious brand of populism.

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6 Comments on January 20, 2017: The Day Democracy Died

“It All Started When”…

January 3, 2017

Gotta love religion.

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3 Comments on “It All Started When”…

Here’s One More Reason To Believe China’s Currency Will Continue To Plunge

January 3, 2017January 3, 2017

Despite the Politburo’s best efforts (which now include the imposition of what amount to new capital

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2 Comments on Here’s One More Reason To Believe China’s Currency Will Continue To Plunge

Dollar Swings Wildly After Upbeat US Economic Data

January 3, 2017

Well, that escalated quickly…

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1 Comment on Dollar Swings Wildly After Upbeat US Economic Data

Tuesday Chart Check (Frozen Money Markets Edition)

January 3, 2017

Confucius say: “It’s probably nothing”…

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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  • Marto on What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?
  • DL on A King In Washington
  • Mr. Lucky on A King In Washington

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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