One Bank’s “Doomsday, Nightmare Scenario”

One Bank’s “Doomsday, Nightmare Scenario”

One of the most critical market trends that gets virtually zero attention in the mainstream financial media is the worsening global dollar shortage. This finds ready expression in wide G4 cross-currency bases: (Deutsche Bank) This is a topic I've spent considerable time discussing over the past year or so. The cost of obtaining dollar liquidity probably shouldn't be that high. Indeed, the fact that xccy bases were essentially zero pre-crisis strongly suggests that something, somewhere is b
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5 thoughts on “One Bank’s “Doomsday, Nightmare Scenario”

    1. From Deutsche..

      “The Fed has stated it will
      make dollar swaps available. The ECB has reportedly obtained dollars through
      this channel but so far is charging a premium that makes this an unattractive
      option. Or, central banks with major dollar reserves (such as the BOJ or PBOC)
      could make them available through xccy swaps. So far there has been little sign of
      this happening, whether because of a perceived stigma associated with dealing
      with central banks, or because non-US central banks are wary of putting upward
      pressure on their currencies. Bottom line: major central banks are contributing
      to if not outright driving the stresses in the xccy basis market, but doing nothing
      to sterilise that impact. At this point, we do not expect central banks to provide
      much relief to the xccy swap market unless there is a major crisis.”

  1. http://seekingalpha.com/article/4040076-coming-depression-economics?app=1&auth_param=15ucug:1c8mfs5:036b78d40374a70c3b5a748c22350a89&uprof=45&dr=1

    This guy has been cataloging the dollar shortage since 2008. He has continually proven that the people responsible are the same ones that you admire. That what you decry as “fake news” is actually the only real news there is. So once again, you are either factually ignorant (may or may not be your fault depending on how early in life you were indoctrinated) or a paid lackey. So which is it?

    1. I was laughing at that article yesterday morning, spit out a bit of coffee. Then I put the pieces together this guy is “Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners”, thought I had saw that name before and low and behold “Alhambra Investment Partners” was on a graph I saw and commented on a day before on this article http://seekingalpha.com/article/4039607-janet-yellens-bland-2017-forecast?v=1485436386&commenter=1&comments=show That graph is not just intentionally misleading or fake news, it is Full Retard as der H would say.

  2. I learned from experience that the optimal dose of skepticism is usually “a sh*t load more than most people harbor, but a whole lot less than someone wearing a tinfoil hat.”

    The more susceptible you are to vast, sweeping conspiracy theories, the more susceptible you are to being taken advantage of by people who come to realize that that’s your predisposition. Sometimes, they take advantage of you by printing ridiculous stories that they call “alternative news” and profiting from your clicks. But other times, they’re looking for your vote. When the click profiteers and the vote seekers get together, you get Donald Trump as President and Steve Bannon as a White House adviser. The next thing you know, CNN calls bullsh*t and you’re told that there’s such a thing as “alternative facts.” A handy rule of thumb: if someone has to use the word “alternative” or its shortened “alt” to legitimize their content, it probably means that whatever they’re saying is suspect.

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