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Featured

‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

September 22, 2026September 22, 2026
  • There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Pending Home Sales Collapse Again In Hopeless US Housing

May 29, 2025May 30, 2025

It was a false dawn. Another one. Following a blockbuster gain to kick off the

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5 Comments on Pending Home Sales Collapse Again In Hopeless US Housing

Court Says Felon Acted Illegally

May 29, 2025May 30, 2025

On Thursday morning in the US, Best Buy cut its sales and profit outlook for

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4 Comments on Court Says Felon Acted Illegally

Brake Slam

May 29, 2025May 30, 2025

Bad news. Or maybe it’s good news to the extent slower growth relieves some of

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Terms And Conditions

May 28, 2025May 28, 2025

I’ve spent a ton of time since “Liberation Day” talking about the term premium, and

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Huang Praises The Revolution As Nvidia Results Clouded By China Curbs

May 28, 2025May 29, 2025

Nvidia — maybe you’ve heard of it — beat on the top-line in results released

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17 Times The Uncertainty

May 28, 2025May 29, 2025

The word “uncertainty” came up 17 times in the May FOMC minutes, released on Wednesday

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2 Comments on 17 Times The Uncertainty

Is US Tech Still Magnificent?

May 28, 2025May 29, 2025

As Nvidia readied its quarterly results, analysts and strategists were torn on whether investors should

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3 Comments on Is US Tech Still Magnificent?

Treasury Selloff Is Insult To Injury For US Housing Crisis

May 28, 2025May 29, 2025

Remember when Scott Bessent was going to reduce financing costs for everyday, middle-income Americans like

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2 Comments on Treasury Selloff Is Insult To Injury For US Housing Crisis

Are Developed Markets The New Banana Republics?

May 27, 2025May 28, 2025

Implicit in pervasive hand-wringing over the recent sharp rise in long-end bond yields across advanced

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3 Comments on Are Developed Markets The New Banana Republics?

US Home Price Growth Slows, Luxury Market Hit By Stock Crash

May 27, 2025May 28, 2025

The annual pace of home price growth as measured by the marquee gauge of US

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1 Comment on US Home Price Growth Slows, Luxury Market Hit By Stock Crash

Trump Engineers Epic Confidence Reversal With China Tariff Pause

May 27, 2025May 28, 2025

While previewing this week’s slate of US macro releases, I suggested consumer confidence was likely

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6 Comments on Trump Engineers Epic Confidence Reversal With China Tariff Pause

In Japan, Myth Maintenance

May 27, 2025May 28, 2025

Markets stop panicking when policymakers start. I don’t know if the news out of Japan

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8 Comments on In Japan, Myth Maintenance

For $1.8 Trillion In Student Loans, It’s Payback Time

May 26, 2025May 27, 2025

Student loans are in the news and I feel like I should say something about

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15 Comments on For $1.8 Trillion In Student Loans, It’s Payback Time

Gone Crazy

May 26, 2025May 27, 2025

Breaking news: Vladimir Putin’s a psychopath. According to Donald Trump, that’s a recent development. “He

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4 Comments on Gone Crazy

Indecency Run Amok

May 25, 2025May 27, 2025

One day, it’ll be obvious to everyone how crazy US policy was in 2025. To

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8 Comments on Indecency Run Amok

Confidence Game

May 25, 2025May 27, 2025

There’s enough on the calendar to keep macro watchers engaged this week, although the unofficial

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2 Comments on Confidence Game

A Global ‘Losing The Long-End’ Moment?

May 24, 2025May 26, 2025

Is the developed world staring down a fiscal crisis and a potential implosion of sundry

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17 Comments on A Global ‘Losing The Long-End’ Moment?

‘Sell America’ Vibe Hard To Ignore Despite ‘TINA’ Legacy

May 23, 2025

Maybe the “sell America” narrative’s overdone, maybe it isn’t, but one thing’s for sure: Europe-focused

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Who Wants To Loan ‘The King Of Debt’ Some Money?

May 23, 2025May 26, 2025

This week was all about bonds, and specifically US Treasurys. Although the US long-end managed

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6 Comments on Who Wants To Loan ‘The King Of Debt’ Some Money?

New Homes: Get ‘Em While Builders Are Desperate

May 23, 2025May 25, 2025

If you’re looking for a discount on a new construction, now’s the time. That was

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2 Comments on New Homes: Get ‘Em While Builders Are Desperate

‘A Straight 50%’

May 23, 2025May 25, 2025

Donald Trump’s so over it. By “it,” I mean recalcitrance in Brussels, where EU officials

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16 Comments on ‘A Straight 5016’

Trump Again Demands Apple Make iPhones In America

May 23, 2025May 24, 2025

Maybe the iPhones aren’t safe after all. Donald Trump put a damper on Friday’s pre-Memorial

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14 Comments on Trump Again Demands Apple Make iPhones In America

Playing With Fire

May 22, 2025May 23, 2025

It’s a mistake, and not a small one either, to view Donald Trump’s assault on

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22 Comments on Playing With Fire

Spring Buying Season Goes Bust As Existing Home Sales Fall Again

May 22, 2025May 23, 2025

Surprise! Existing US home sales fell last month, according to Thursday’s update from the recognized

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1 Comment on Spring Buying Season Goes Bust As Existing Home Sales Fall Again

The US Economy’s Fine. But Businesses Hate The Tariffs

May 22, 2025May 23, 2025

Breaking news: The US economy’s fine. More or less. That was the message from preliminary

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1 Comment on The US Economy’s Fine. But Businesses Hate The Tariffs

Long Bond, Long Face

May 22, 2025May 23, 2025

I don’t want to say Scott Bessent’s lost the US long-end, because that’s a little

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Well Hello, Liz!

May 21, 2025

The mid-week selloff at the long-end of the US Treasury curve was exactly what Scott

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5 Comments on Well Hello, Liz!

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • WeeblesWobble (ButTheyDon'tFallDown) on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!
  • Wave Dash on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!
  • Blognonymous on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • Mr. Dog on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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