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Jobs Report Comes Up Roses In Boon To Trump
If you were expecting something dramatic -- something exciting -- from Friday's US jobs report, you'
I might have to go looking for one of these great new jobs. My services related self-employment, depending on people making large purchases, has almost completely dried up in the last month. It’s not just me either, all my friends doing the same job are reporting the same slowdown.
which sector is this, may i ask? i dont want ASL but just curious purely from an economic perspective.
Marine Surveyor, like a home inspector and appraiser in one, but for yachts before people buy them. Not Bezo’s type yachts, usually 30-70 feet, $50k-$3mill.
“Oh, and I’d be remiss not to note that Donald Trump will almost surely take credit for a good jobs report even as he claims every less-good data point, including and especially this week’s GDP release, was someone else’s fault.”
This was my first thought on seeing the headlines this morning. Funny how that works, isn’t it? But goes to show how great his genius is…..despite Biden screwing up the April 2025 economic reports, Trump still managed to make hiring great again! Ooops, I forgot to capitalize the Important Words.
Decent but backwards-looking. NFP is always backwards-looking and, being from the same month as Liberation Day, April NFP is especially so. Do we think, for example, that April’s gains in transportation services means that sector is doing fine now and in coming months?
That transportation number stood out to me too. I have a friend who drives a big-rig for UPS and they just announced they are closing about 70 of their smaller facilities/hubs.
I think UPS announced it will cut 20,000 jobs this year.
Looking into the timing of data for NFP: “In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.”
Assuming most pay periods are biweekly, the April NFP quite literally is counting jobs extant at the start of the month . . . before “Liberation Day”.
This is being technically ticky tacky – whether the NFP report counted jobs at the start, middle, or end of April probably doesn’t matter much. It is simply too soon to see the labor market effects.