Could’ve been worse.

That’s how I’d describe Thursday’s update on the marquee gauge of US manufacturing activity, this week’s penultimate top-tier macro release.

At 48.7, the ISM headline topped estimates, but remained in contraction territory for a second month. Consensus was 47.9. All of the key demand gauges printed well below the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. The production index showed an abysmal 44, down more than 4ppt from March.

That said, new orders was better than expected at 47.2. Consensus saw just 45 there, and although the prices paid index moved up again, nearly kissing 70, 69.8 was actually below estimates. Economists saw 73. It says something about tariff angst when 69.8 on ISM prices paid counts as a relief.

It was the same story on the employment gauge. 46.5’s pretty bad, but it was an improvement from March’s 44.7. The juxtaposition between the high (and rising) input prices indicator and the low (but at least improving) employment measure, points to stagflation.

The word “tariff” featured a hilarious 27 times in the release. Every, single one of the panelist anecdotes mentioned the trade war. “Tariff trade wars are incredibly volatile,” somebody in Apparel remarked. “Tariff whiplash is causing us major issues with customers,” a panelist in Machinery chimed in. “Strategic procurement [is] paralyzed in a world that changes daily due to tariffs,” someone in Nonmetallic Mineral Products sighed.

You get the idea. But remember: These lackluster macro readouts have “NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS,” according to Donald Trump. That’s a direct quote from TruthSocial where he blamed Joe Biden for the economy’s poor performance in Q1.

Obviously, the pervasive consternation voiced by business leaders across all sectors of the US economy has everything to do with tariffs, and precisely nothing to do with Biden. In a mid-week cabinet meeting, Trump set Biden up to be the fall guy if the economy doesn’t recover in Q2. “You could even say the next quarter is sort of Biden,” he mused.

Yeah, you could. Say that, I mean. But you’re not going to fool anybody. Maybe Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are hanging out in Dr. Evil’s mountain bunker scheming to undermine Trump’s economy, but Biden’s gumming soft serve in a rocking chair somewhere. There isn’t a business owner in America — large, small or anywhere in-between — who’s going to blame Biden for a tariff-induced recession should one materialize later this year.

Meanwhile, the final read on S&P Global’s gauge of US manufacturing activity for April, also released on Thursday, was revised slightly lower from the flash print. At 50.2, it’s barely hanging on in expansion territory. The outlook’s bleak.

“Manufacturing continued to flat-line amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs,” S&P Global’s Chris Williamson said, adding that “factory output fell for a second month as tariffs were widely blamed [for] a slump in export orders and curbed spending among customers amid rising uncertainty.”

I don’t know why all of these people are lying. Again: This has “NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS.” The president told me so himself. And I gotta tell you, there’s a special place in an El Salvadorian gulag for anyone who keeps insisting otherwise.