US Jobless Claims Stay Low During NFP Survey Week
US jobless claims were a nonevent Thursday. So, why am I wasting my time and,
‘Adapting As We Go’
There were two main takeaways from Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, when the Fed
Fed On Hold, Sticks With Two 2025 Cuts In Dot Plot, Tapers QT
The Fed left rates on hold Wednesday, as expected. There was exactly no chance of
Meanwhile, In Turkey…
I used to cover Turkish politics, monetary policy and the lira as a matter of
Plunging Global Growth Outlook ‘Bad News For Stocks’
If you’re curious to know what a sharply deteriorating global growth outlook among fund managers
Cash, Tariffs And DOGE
Did you buy the (re)dip? Wall Street struggled on Tuesday to extend a two-session rally
Here Comes The Constitutional Crisis
There are a lot of “Will he or won’t he?” questions swirling around Donald Trump,
Global Macro Pessimism Soars Second-Most Since 1994
Congratulations are in order: The Trump administration just catalyzed the largest decline in a broad
New Construction Rebounds, But US Housing’s Still Screwed
Good news. Provisionally. New construction activity picked up in the US last month despite woefully
Fund Managers Run Screaming From US Stocks As Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Dawns
Well, it’s official: US equity exceptionalism’s over. Time of death: March 2025 or, less than
Wilson, Kostin Both Cautious As Wall Street Wavers
Any recovery for US equities — which last week sank into correction territory before recovering
Goldman Slashes M&A Forecast, Sounds Alarm On IPOs
Did Donald Trump kill the nascent M&A recovery? Maybe! So far, the defining feature of
US Homebuilder Sentiment Crumbles Further On Tariff Chaos
Did you hear? There’s a real estate developer in the White House. That means builder
If You Can’t Trust The CCP, Who Can You Trust?
“China rarely fails to achieve its growth target.” That’s a direct quote from an analyst
US Retail Sales Disappoint, But Key Underlying Metric Strong
Headline US retail sales missed estimates in the first of this week’s notable US macro
Is The US Stock Correction Over?
Is the US stock correction over? That’s the question for everyone with nothing better to
What To Expect From The March FOMC Meeting
I wouldn’t want to be Jerome Powell right now. Or any other time either for
Fed Shares Space With China Data, BoE, BoJ In New Week
The March FOMC meeting’s obviously the marquee event this week, but the macro docket’s full
Bonds And Stocks In Dr. Bessent’s ‘Detox’ Clinic
Long bonds or stocks? If you asked that question following the election in November, most
Why Vol Didn’t Show Up For The ‘Trump Correction’
A few readers have asked, both in comments posted publicly and in emails, about the
Since 1993
With apologies for the frequency of expletives this week: Red f-cking alert. Five- to 10-year
Money Pours Into European Stocks As ‘US Exceptionalism’ Slams Into Reverse
It started with performance. Now it’s manifesting in flows. The reversal of the “US exceptionalism”
2000, 2008 And… 2025?
US equities are down 10% from record highs and 10-year US yields are 50bps off
Correction Arrives For US Stocks In $5 Trillion Rout
The S&P entered a correction on Thursday amid persistent trade war angst and, relatedly, the
Trump Has A Plan All Right. And It’s Pretty F-cking Evil.
I’ve said it over and over again: The Trump administration has no grand plan for
Bitter Little Pill
Right-wingers like Elon Musk are fond of a Matrix analogy for the world: You’ve got
Otherwise Favorable PPI Release May Bias Fed’s Favored Inflation Metric Higher
There was more incrementally good news on the US inflation front Thursday, when the BLS
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