Contract activity in the beleaguered US housing market slipped in June, partially reversing the prior month’s gain and underscoring myriad challenges facing buyers, sellers and builders alike.
The 0.8% contraction on the NAR’s widely-followed measure of pending home sales disappointed economists who expected a small advance.
As the figure below reminds you, the series is loitering at very subdued levels, which is to say uncomfortably close to record lows.
There are very few signs of life here. Measured on a MoM basis, pending sales fell in three of four regions. On a YoY basis, contract activity was either down or flat everywhere.
Wednesday’s update caps another month of unfortunate readouts which uniformly suggest the US housing market’s frozen solid amid record high prices (even as the pace of annual gains is slowing) and mortgage rates “sticky” near 7%.
The MBA’s weekly update showed the average 30-year fixed was more or less unchanged in recent days. At 6.83%, it’s “high enough that there was not much interest in refinancing,” as MBA VP Joel Kan put it, adding that overall mortgage applications were the lowest since May.
Drilling down, purchase activity showed a 6% decline from the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Demand for all loan types — conventional, FHA and VA — fell even as price growth moderated and inventories expanded.
Wednesday’s update on contract activity in June didn’t appear to bode especially well for existing home sales in July. Earlier this week, the NAR tried to cheer up otherwise despondent housing market participants. “The sky isn’t falling,” the association said, noting that just 3% of sales were distressed last month and contract terminations were “stable” at 6%.
Meanwhile, if you’re looking for a bargain you might try D.C. According to Redfin, inventory in the nation’s capital just rose 23% YoY in June, when prices for single-family homes notched a second consecutive huge drop measured against the prior month.
As Redfin’s local “market manager” put it, in an accidentally dry assessment, “The local market is recalibrating… due to federal job cuts.”



There’s gonna be a lot of recalibrating, pretty much everywhere, in all asset types.