The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as expected, and much to Donald Trump’s chagrin.

We know — because he told everybody — that during their tour of the over-budget construction project at the heart of The White House’s Fed pressure campaign, Trump reiterated to Jerome Powell that the administration wants lower rates. And Trump’s a guy who doesn’t like being told “no.”

Still, it’s hard to imagine Trump came away from last week’s publicity stunt at the Fed building believing there was a meaningful chance of a rate cut this week. Scott Bessent certainly knew there was no such chance. He said as much in a interview with Breitbart.

Although the Fed’s very likely to commence cutting again in September, the forward guidance was noncommittal in the refreshed statement. “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated,” the Committee said. Policymakers are “attentive to the risks to both sides of [the] dual mandate.”

Chris Waller dissented in favor of a quarter-point cut. So did Miki Bowman. They made no secret of their intentions in the lead-up to the meeting. Both lobbied for a cut in a series of public speaking engagements and, in Waller’s case, television cameos.

It should be noted (again) that both Waller and Bowman were hawks. Were. Past tense. Indeed, Bowman dissented hawkishly at the September 2024 meeting, when the Fed cut by 50bps.

Some wonder if Bowman’s dovish conversion might be attributable, in part, to the coveted supervisory role Trump bestowed. Bowman would of course deny that. As for Waller, many observes liken his dovish leanings to an audition for Powell’s job. If that’s any semblance of accurate, it’s in vain: Trump’s unlikely to choose Waller.

Anyway, the new statement language described the economy in mostly familiar terms. Growth “moderated in the first half of the year,” the jobless rate’s still “low,” labor market conditions are “solid” and inflation “remains somewhat elevated.” The guidance on the balance sheet was unchanged.

All in all, this was an as-expected result, and one that won’t please Trump although, coming quickly full circle, Powell surely told the president a cut at Wednesday’s meeting was very unlikely.

The hope on the Committee, probably, is that the dissents and the high probability of rate cuts starting in September will be enough to back Trump off. He’ll be naming Powell’s successor soon enough, and his remarks last week, following the spectacle at the Eccles building, seemed to suggest the administration views the risk-reward from firing Powell as skewed asymmetrically to the downside.

All of that said, questions about Powell’s tenure will persist until the day his term as Chair expires. There’s no getting around that.