Private sector employers in the US added 104,000 jobs in July, ADP said Wednesday.
That was easily ahead of the 76,000 consensus and came as a relief. In June, private sector payrolls contracted on ADP’s data, and were likewise weak in the government’s tally.
Last month’s ADP headline was revised to show a 23,000 drop, shallower than the initially-reported decline.
July’s pace was the briskest since March and pulled the three-month average up to a (still subdued) 37,000.
ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said July’s figures “are broadly indicative of a healthy economy.” Hiring was broad-based. Only education and health services showing a decline. Leisure and hospitality chipped in 46,000 on the services side, while the goods-producing sector was led by construction, which showed a 15,000 gain.
Pay gains were steady at 7% annually for so-called “job switchers” and 4.4% for those who stayed in their current position.
I don’t think you need a lot of analysis on this one. Taken at face value, this suggests June’s contraction in private hiring was a one-off driven, perhaps, by tariff angst and associated macro uncertainty.
A word of caution: Notwithstanding July’s robust headline, the trend — represented here by the three-month average — isn’t your friend. It’ll take another month or two of decent readouts before anyone can safely suggest that private payroll growth isn’t at risk.
For now, I suppose we should just take good news when and where we can get it. “Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient,” Richardson said.


