I’ve said it before since January and I’m sure I’ll say it a few (dozen) more times in the months and years ahead: Welcome to autocracy, enjoy your stay.
On Friday, following a jobs report which, to let critics tell it, reflected poorly on The White House’s management of the economy, Donald Trump called for the removal of BLS chief Erika McEntarfer. And no, I’m unfortunately not joking.
“I was just informed that our Country’s ‘Jobs Numbers’ are being produced by a Biden Appointee,” Trump seethed, accusing McEntarfer of “faking” the employment data in the lead-up to the election in order to favor Kamala Harris.
Trump cited the BLS’s annual benchmarking exercise as evidence of a conspiracy. Recall that in August of last year, the BLS’s first run at that yearly statistical floor routine saw the bureau revise away 818,000 jobs for the 12-month stretch ending the previous March. It was the largest such adjustment since 2009. (Later, that figure was itself revised to show a smaller, but still pronounced, 598,000 adjustment.)
In the same social media post, Trump cited upward revisions to the monthly NFP headline prior to the election, calling that more evidence of bias at the BLS. “No one can be that wrong?” he wondered. And then, this:
I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified.
And there you have it: Trump’s going to install — or try to install — a loyalist at the BLS which, once purged, will make sure the numbers are “fair and accurate,” as he put it, going forward.
I don’t think I’m being a partisan to suggest Trump’s definition of “fair and accurate” will include an implicit mandate to produce favorable data where possible.
Trump took aim directly at Friday’s release, suggesting the huge downward revisions to headline hiring from May and June are fabricated. “The Economy is BOOMING under ‘TRUMP’,” he said, putting his own name in scare quotes for no obvious reason on the way to accusing the Fed of “also play[ing] games” and calling for Jerome Powell to be “put out to pasture.”
“Beyond the pale” seems inadequate when it comes to describing the audacity on display in Trump’s move against the BLS, which is already struggling to produce accurate data due to the impact of the administration’s federal hiring freeze.
If Trump really does fire McEntarfer and replaces her with a sycophant, America will have taken one more giant step down the road to an Erdogan-style system of governance. This is the sort of outlandish powergrab with the potential to further undermine faith in the rule of law and confidence in the country’s capital markets.
Republicans in the Senate could put a stop to this democratic backsliding. So could the Supreme Court’s conservative super majority. Instead, they’re throwing it away, where “it” means all of it. And for what? The vainglory of a reality TV show host. It’s truly something to behold. And to lament.
I don’t know how to search my past comments here, but I could swear I suggested he’d fire the head of the BLS a couple months ago. That’s dictator 101….don’t like the statistics? Come up w/ better ones.
Not sure why, but of all his thoughtless, self-serving actions, this one is particularly vile. The stats get revised up and down, regardless of administration. To suggest that McEntarfer is altering the numbers for political purposes is absurd. There won’t be one republican congressperson that defends here. Shameful.
Some googlefu: enter this into search
site:heisenbergreport.com brh
Followed by keywords you want to search
He should name himself head of the BLS and just tell us what the number should be based on his gut. Why even bother with the pretense?
+1.
At least she wasn’t defenestrated.
This is a good point – we haven’t gotten to the oddly timed deaths of former government officials stage (yet).
Be careful what you wish for, old man. There’s a very old apocryphal story about a guy trying to hire an accountant. He asks his first candidate how much 2+2 is. The guy says four. He gets booted. The second and third guys get the same question, give the same answers. They don’t get the job either. The boss asks the fourth candidate how much is 2+2. He looks at the boss and replies: “What do you want it to be?” He gets the job.
Now a true story for you. A friend of mine went to meet his new accountant. The first thing he said was “how much money do you want to pay in taxes?”
Maybe Bessent and company are negotiating outsourcing of Chinese statisticians to the BLS to help get the numbers “right” as part of the trade deal.
Absurd doesn’t quite cover it anymore.
“Who will rid me of this priest ?”!!!!!
I think you’re missing a word: meddlesome (sometime turbulent, but meddlesome fits th moment better).
Trump always thinks other people are trying to make him look bad. He does a great job of it all by himself.
Each month, err week, err day Trump grabs a little more. Reality is what he says it is; GDP, Nobel Prizes, American history, his golf score and every other damned thing. I’d say with this latest move he’s crossed the Rubicon. If Republicans let this stand (they’ve stopped nothing else) then there’s no stopping him short of ‘taking it to the streets’. Checks and balances, I think not.
BREAKING NEWS: Trump plans to fire the head of any news agency that reports the DOW, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ on any days they’re down.
And Trump has corrected this jobs report situation. He has issued an Executive Order that fires the BLS chief and restores the 258,000 jobs back and increases the July jobs to 110,000.
So everybody should just calm down, Okay?.
H-Man, unfortunately his base will bite on this that she cooked the numbers — God save the poor SOB that takes her place. Same play book over and over again, blame someone, anyone and roast them in the press.
Remember when we used to scoff and eyeroll Chinese economic numbers?
We are in the ultimate nightmare and there’s no waking up. It just goes on and on.
Every time one of these insane, unimaginable things happen I’ve taken to comparing the Guardian’s and the NYT’s headlines to the WSJ’s. This firing is not the top headline, it’s in smaller print just below the headline. How are those money grubbing people not s*@tting their pants?
I checked Fox this morning and buried way down is a story with the headline “American jobs skyrocket as foreign-born jobs decline under Trump” with the nonsensical tag line “‘The promises made the president were that he was going to pay attention to the American worker,’ Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said in July”
Way down in the bottom of the article they mention Trump firing the BLS Chief.
Keeping it hidden from their audience.
It doesn’t matter. Most Americans and none of his base care about this.
If Trump starts manipulating NFP and UE claims, investors will do as in China – using private and unofficial data. ADP will replace NFP, state reported UE claims will replace federal reported UE claims.
If Trump starts manipulating CPI, ditto on data and also TIPS will tank.
I recall that H has expressed shock at various times over the past 200 days about Wall Street not taking notice that Trump is dismantling the rules and checks/balances of our federal government that both the USA and the world have relied upon for the last 250 years.
Based on futures, it appears that Wall Street might finally be taking notice.
Probably should give the job to Rubio.
Somewhere thousands of miles away, Marco Rubio shivers as a chill runs down his spine. A line from the phone call echos in his head, “You did such a good job with those other agencies where you had to fire everyone, now I want you to do that to numbers.” Marco briefly wonders if it’s possible for a human to just disappear by swallowing their own face.
How ironic would it be if forward payroll numbers are too good for the Fed to act on rates in any meaningful way. Consumer figures are the next stand. There is already weakness and I would bet it gets worse. You can’t square good jobs numbers with bad consumer numbers, though try as the administration may. And then comes company earnings. If profits and margins erode that will point to trouble in jobs and consumer strength. I know there is a lot of funny business in accounting at corporations…how far will the administration go to control what corporations report? Finally, as I tell my friends on the other side of my political leanings, Trump can force the Fed to drop rates to zero (they don’t distinguish the overnight lending rate from the GT10) but treasury yields could actually rise as the good faith and credit of the U.S. gets questioned by bond holders. I knew I would be exhausted by this summer but I didn’t know I would be this worn out!
Does anyone else think the swap lines are in play?