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‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

September 22, 2026September 22, 2026
  • There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Americans’ Inflation Expectations Plunge Most In Quarter-Century

June 13, 2025June 14, 2025

For the first time since late last year, consumer sentiment improved on the marquee gauge

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1 Comment on Americans’ Inflation Expectations Plunge Most In Quarter-Century

And Now, War

June 12, 2025June 13, 2025

The rumors weren’t rumors. They typically aren’t when the subject’s IDF war plans. Israel doesn’t

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7 Comments on And Now, War

‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Is Egregious Reverse Robinhood Scheme

June 12, 2025June 13, 2025

The numbers are in and guess what? The GOP’s “big, beautiful” tax bill accrues handsomely

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14 Comments on ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Is Egregious Reverse Robinhood Scheme

‘Take It Or Leave It’

June 12, 2025June 13, 2025

“You can take it or leave it.” That’s what Donald Trump’s going to tell the

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7 Comments on ‘Take It Or Leave It’

Claims Canary

June 12, 2025June 12, 2025

I’m always cautious about declaring a turning point for US jobless claims. Each and every

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Leave a Comment on Claims Canary

Wholesale Prices Docile As Tariff Spike Fails To Materialize

June 12, 2025June 13, 2025

Another day, another benign read on a key gauge of US price pressures. Wholesale prices

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2 Comments on Wholesale Prices Docile As Tariff Spike Fails To Materialize

‘Monetary Malpractice’

June 11, 2025June 11, 2025

Unfortunately, JD Vance is weighing in on US monetary policy now too. “Too” meaning in

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6 Comments on ‘Monetary Malpractice’

Meanwhile, In US Housing…

June 11, 2025June 12, 2025

For whatever it’s worth to you, home-loan activity in the US picked up meaningfully after

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6 Comments on Meanwhile, In US Housing…

Xi Plays His Trump Card

June 11, 2025June 12, 2025

I hate to rub it in, particularly considering that, as an American, I’m on the

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3 Comments on Xi Plays His Trump Card

FULL MAGNETS

June 11, 2025June 12, 2025

“A handshake for a framework.” That’s how Howard Lutnick described the outcome of US-China trade

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12 Comments on FULL MAGNETS

Trump Gets A Win As US Inflation Negligible

June 11, 2025June 12, 2025

Well whaddayaknow, inflation in the US ran meaningfully cooler than expected last month, according to

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6 Comments on Trump Gets A Win As US Inflation Negligible

Fed Chair Bessent?

June 10, 2025June 11, 2025

Fed Chair Scott Bessent isn’t a good idea. Why? Simple: Because he’s already beholden to

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13 Comments on Fed Chair Bessent?

Ice Cream TACOs

June 10, 2025June 11, 2025

I hesitate to weigh in on the near-term trajectory of… well, of anything, really. Tomorrow’s

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7 Comments on Ice Cream TACOs

The Bullish Side Of Unprecedented Trade Uncertainty

June 10, 2025June 11, 2025

If you’re searching for a silver lining in the dense fog of uncertainty hanging over

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3 Comments on The Bullish Side Of Unprecedented Trade Uncertainty

Where Are The Libertarians When You Need Them?

June 10, 2025June 11, 2025

Late last week, the Supreme Court ruled that Elon Musk’s brainchild, DOGE, can access Americans’

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13 Comments on Where Are The Libertarians When You Need Them?

Are Global Equities Overbought?

June 9, 2025

Are global stocks overbought? You’d be forgiven for asking, wouldn’t you? After all, the world’s

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1 Comment on Are Global Equities Overbought?

Less Than Five Months In, Troops In The Streets

June 9, 2025June 10, 2025

At a time when international investors were already inclined to casting a wary eye at

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18 Comments on Less Than Five Months In, Troops In The Streets

Trump Could Put Xi In A Bad Spot. But He Won’t

June 9, 2025June 10, 2025

Xi Jinping can outlast the US in a trade war. That’s not to say he

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7 Comments on Trump Could Put Xi In A Bad Spot. But He Won’t

Will Americans Lose Interest In ‘Blame China’?

June 9, 2025June 10, 2025

Say congratulations to Donald Trump: The tariffs worked. Trade with China collapsed in May. Trump

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7 Comments on Will Americans Lose Interest In ‘Blame China’?

Long-Bond Drama Reignites 60/40 Debate

June 8, 2025June 10, 2025

There’s no shortage of handwringing over the dollar’s recent decoupling from Treasury yields. As discussed

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7 Comments on Long-Bond Drama Reignites 60/40 Debate

Guesswork

June 8, 2025June 9, 2025

This’ll be a fairly eventful week on the macro front in the US, where the

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3 Comments on Guesswork

Are Investors Abandoning US Stocks?

June 7, 2025June 9, 2025

Are investors abandoning US equities? No. Yes. Maybe? It’s not a straightforward question. Answering it’s

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2 Comments on Are Investors Abandoning US Stocks?

‘Hot’ America

June 6, 2025June 9, 2025

We’re in month six of 2025, which is to say nearly halfway through the year.

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2 Comments on ‘Hot’ America

Rocket Fuel And Melodrama

June 6, 2025June 8, 2025

It never stops. The soap opera never stops in Donald Trump’s America. Every, single day

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6 Comments on Rocket Fuel And Melodrama

Headline Hiring Holds Up In Mixed US Jobs Report

June 6, 2025June 8, 2025

The US economy added slightly more jobs than expected in May, but payroll growth was

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1 Comment on Headline Hiring Holds Up In Mixed US Jobs Report

A $34 Billion Breakup

June 5, 2025June 5, 2025

$34 billion. That was the damage for Elon Musk when the closing bell sounded on

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3 Comments on A $34 Billion Breakup

History’s Dumbest Oligarchy Implodes

June 5, 2025June 7, 2025

Back in February, when Elon Musk was in the process of commandeering critical US government

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29 Comments on History’s Dumbest Oligarchy Implodes

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Mr. Dog on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!
  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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