Fund managers are the most bullish since “Liberation Day” was just a bad idea competing with other bad ideas for space under Donald Trump’s thinning pompadour.

That was the overarching message from a mostly unexciting edition of BofA’s monthly global fund manager poll, released into the hazy summer void on Monday. (Technically, it came out Sunday.)

Although global growth expectations (the net share expecting a stronger economy), “remain tepid,” as Michael Hartnett put it, with a net 41% expecting weaker growth, a mere 5% say a hard landing’s the most likely outcome.

Note from the chart that at the height of the “Liberation Day” panic, the hard landing share was 49%, briefly exceeding the share expecting a soft landing. In this month’s poll, soft landing garnered 68% of the responses.

The relative consensus around a soft landing makes for an amusing juxtaposition with the tariffs. If you told fund managers earlier this year that the average US tariff rate was going to quintuple, their outlook for the global economy would’ve tanked. I can say that with certainty because someone did tell them that (Trump) and their outlook did tank (in April).

What’s different now versus four months ago is… well, not a lot, to be honest. I mean sure, it’s helpful that instead of taxing trade at 25% or 30% (the rate implied by the original “Liberation Day” levies), the average duty will be 15%, but I’m not sure 10 tariff percentage points justifies a swing from even odds for a hard landing to negligible odds when that 10ppt swing still leaves the average US tariff rate at levels that would’ve seemed unthinkable under any modern president other than Trump.

Anyway, cash levels in the BofA poll (figure on the left, below) remain at a cycle low 3.9%, leaving one of the bank’s contrarian “sell” signals intact. Hartnett reminded readers that the median four-week S&P loss following 17 historical “sell” signals using the cash “rule” (it’s not an official rule, these are indicative metrics) since 2011 is 2%.

And yet, equity allocations are nowhere near extreme (figure on the right). You might recall that survey panelists were Underweight stocks at one point earlier this year. The Overweight in this month’s poll was modest, even as it counted as the highest since February. For context, the current Overweight, 14%, is 10ppt lower than the quarter-century norm.

Overall, sentiment’s about average looking back 25 years. Hartnett rolls up cash levels, equity allocations and growth expectations to get a composite sentiment indicator. At 4.5, that metric’s the best since February, but for context, it can be as high as nine or 10 in euphoric scenarios.

“Trade war triggers a global recession” was still the top tail risk, but it captured just 29% of the vote, down from nearly 50% in June.