Tariff Man gonna tariff I suppose.

Donald Trump made good on threats to impose additional levies on trade with Narendra Modi’s India in connection, ostensibly, with New Delhi’s ongoing purchases of Russian crude.

I spent a fair amount of time discussing this in “The India Row” so I won’t belabor the same points here other than to reiterate that Trump only cares about India’s oil-buying because he feels slighted by Vladimir Putin.

Relatedly, Trump only wants a ceasefire in Ukraine because he thinks it’ll make him look good — or even win him The Nobel Peace Prize. Putin’s refusal to engage in the peace process is injurious to Trump’s vainglory. Everything’s negotiable with Trump except that. His vanity’s a red line.

So, this isn’t about the oil. (“He hates these cans!”) It’s about Trump trying to secure exclusive bragging rights for a peace “deal” in Eastern Europe. That’s the context for what, absent a deal, will be a 50% levy on Indian imports to the US.

Trump’s Executive Order, signed on Wednesday, goes out of its way to feign concern for Ukraine and the read-across of the war for US national security, something the MAGA wing of the Republican party has repeatedly played down since 2022.

“I have received additional information from various senior officials on the actions of the Government of the Russian Federation with respect to the situation in Ukraine,” Trump explained. “After considering this additional information, I find that the actions and policies of the [Russian government] continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.”

By extension, anyone aiding and abetting those “actions” has to pay the price, and the price, if you’re India, is “an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25%” on exports to the US, applied on top of “any other duties, fees, taxes, exactions and charges applicable to such” items.

Trump gave Modi a fairly long grace period. 21 days. That’s more than enough time for New Delhi to negotiate, but as noted here on Tuesday, India’s foreign policy autonomy isn’t up for discussion. Modi’s not going to stop buying Russian oil. Not entirely.

Sure, trade with the US is mission-critical for India — America’s obviously the country’s top export destination — but in addition to the sanctity of foreign policy independence, Modi values India’s relationship with Russia. He’s not going to disavow economic ties with the Kremlin just because Trump demands it, particularly given that New Delhi knows, just like everyone else knows, that this isn’t actually a matter of principle for Trump.

Consider that the Kremlin’s reportedly pondering a modified ceasefire arrangement in which Russia stops bombarding Ukrainian cities and confines the fighting to the ground war on the (mostly frozen) frontlines. Who knows if Trump would accept that, but if he did, and subsequently rolled back sanctions on Russia and reengaged Moscow in an economic dialogue, an India which shunned Russia to placate Trump would be left in the lurch.

Trump’s “deadline” for a Ukraine ceasefire arrangement is Friday. I can’t imagine Putin meeting that deadline, but you never know, and considering Modi’s new deadline is three weeks away, there’s presumably no chance of a very near-term trade deal between India and the US. (If you’re New Delhi, why wouldn’t you just wait to see if Putin cuts a deal knowing that if he does, Trump might back away from secondary sanctions on countries which buy Russian oil?)

Anyway, it’s worth noting — as Bloomberg did Wednesday — that Trump’s threatened drug tariffs would hit India hard. The country’s pharma industry, the linked article remarked, “ranks among the country’s top three exports to the US,” with total shipments set to reach $11 billion annually.