Volodymyr Zelensky doesn’t want any part of it. A ceasefire arrangement negotiated without the participation of the nation which was invaded, I mean.
On Saturday, Zelensky took to social media to deliver a sharply-worded critique of a Ukraine “peace” (note the scare quotes) process from which Kyiv has once again been excluded.
For all Donald Trump’s fulminating against the Kremlin’s ceasefire foot-dragging — and for all his derisive remarks about the Russian economy — he still views the world through the lens of great powers, great men and spheres of influence. Russia, in his mind, is a great power, Vladimir Putin a great man and Ukraine a state which, if push comes to shove, is more properly Russian than it is anything else.
In that context, it’s hardly surprising that the Trump administration continues to favor bilateral discussions with Russia over a multilateral peace process when it comes to Ukraine. Better for two great powers to carve the place up and impose the plan on all interested parties than invite those parties to participate in negotiations for some manner of mutually-agreeable settlement.
But this is 2025, not 1800, and whether Trump recognizes it or not, other countries, Ukraine included, have agency. In the post-War world, everyone takes the concept of territorial sovereignty pretty seriously. The days of redrawing borders through military force are over. Or at least they were supposed to be, and that’s more or less what Zelensky said.
Alaska, where Trump and Putin are set to meet next week to hammer out details, is “very far away from this war,” Zelensky remarked, chafing at the notion that Ukraine should cede the Donbas to Putin and formally recognize the Kremlin’s claim on Crimea. “This war is raging on our land, against our people and can’t be ended without us — without Ukraine,” he went on.
That would appear to be that. In the same remarks, Zelensky called the US-Russia ceasefire plan “stillborn” and said any decisions taken without Ukraine’s input are tantamount to deciding against peace, not for it. He stated the obvious about the terms of the proposed deal: It wouldn’t count as a “dignified peace” for Ukraine because it’d be tantamount to “gifting land to the occupier.” That, Zelensky said in no uncertain terms, isn’t going to happen.
The problem here for those who argue that Ukraine’s fighting a losing battle and should therefore just give up territory which is anyway in thrall to separatists and has been for over a decade, is that Ukraine’s not actually losing. I mean, they aren’t winning either, but the front lines are frozen.
Putin’s casualties number in the millions. Can he sustain that longer than Zelensky? Sure. Probably. Maybe. But then again, who knows? It’s July of 2025. The invasion occurred in February of 2022. Serious people can disagree on what to call this from Putin’s perspective, but one thing it can’t be deemed is an unqualified success. It’s not a total failure, but on a continuum where the right side’s labeled “unqualified success” and the left “total failure,” it’s left of center. There’s no debating that.
Trump could conceivably force the arrangement on Ukraine, but at additional cost in terms of America’s credibility among its allies, and particularly among the European powers. What’s it going to look like to the UK, France and Germany, if Trump makes a big show of cutting off all aid, financial and military, to Kyiv if Ukraine refuses to give Putin land? Trump’s famously unconcerned with bad optics, but my goodness: That’d be a bad look even as bad looks go.
It should be noted that even in such a scenario — i.e., even if he cuts off all American assistance — Trump can’t force Ukraine to stop fighting. And if you believe Zelensky, they won’t. “Putin did not believe in our people and therefore made the hopeless decision to try to take Ukraine,” he said Saturday. “I believe in our people. Ukrainians are strong. And Ukrainians defend what’s theirs. Stand firm. This is our land. Glory to Ukraine!”
You gotta hand it to the guy. His comportment over the last three and a half years is a singular achievement in the annals of rising to the occasion.
This was to be expected I suppose. The only way it would be rational for Ukraine to cede land is if they received strong NATO guarantees AND also significant NATO peacekeeping forces probably around 100 000 troops (lower quantities hardly qualify as doorsteps in this conflict).
Ukrainian leadership has known the worst of Trump was a possibility and have been planning for the US backing out for years.
Polls indicating that Ukrainians would cede land for peace are ultimately deceptive and dependent on the details of the question(s) asked. Yeah, they’re tired of the war. As will increasingly Russians be; total war is and has always been tiresome after all. Putin isn’t acting in good faith (to state the obvious) – most Ukrainians are aware of that. Ukrainian troops evacuating fortifications they built on their own unoccupied territory just to Russia can blitz them isn’t going to happen. Russia’s war industry allowed to be run unimpeded past a frozen conflict likely sums up to a Russian net benefit as well.
You must admire Zelensky’s courage and conviction. He is not some Republican congressman that you can just carve-out a deal with or threaten to “primary” if he doesn’t vote to approve, as he actually cares about what is at stake here. We may get to see Trump melt down (again) fairly soon over this. His negotiation skills are apparently limited to: pressure, threats, bribes, partial truths, distractions, and the eventual about-face (TACO) if things don’t go his way.
Let’s not forget another major factor here: Burkina and Hunter Biden! This is what Zelensky gets for refusing to investigate that horrible scandal.
Burkina… not Mr. AI. It’s Bursima.
actually it’ Burisma. ?
sorry to be that guy
Oh, you old scold! Thanks.
I see a Heisenberg graphic coming.
Where the stars should be in the upper left corner. Maga. The rest of the flag of white
Putin with a Russian flag in the upper left-hand corner Alaska
It would help Ukraine if the media would start unrelentingly calling out Trump for being bested by Putin (which he is). We need a new acronym like PABT – Putin Always Beats Trump. Something to ignite his 7 year old mind. Other than that it’s the Nobel that is driving him. Who in their right mind, which he isn’t, would think you could be a peacemaker by dealing with only one side in a conflict. If Trump thought he had leverage and was a tough guy, he’d negotiate only with Zelensky and then tell Putin the terms he’s going to accept.
He used the same model for Abraham Accords.
I nominate “Putin Upstages Trump Again.” That acronym has a nice ring to it.
H-Man, the war has morphed into drone fighting with intermittent Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities. Absent a massive drone investment from Europe, Ukraine will have no choice but to accept the “deal” or begin to look like Gaza with trees.