Alternative Facts

Just when markets were ready and willing to give Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt on a harebrained scheme to right a constellation of perceived wrongs by way of double-digit taxes on global commerce, he made a new mess.

After last week, investors, traders and economists are compelled to consider the (very real) possibility that a majority of top-tier US macro data will be manipulated going forward to fit Trump’s “golden age” narrative. And I don’t mean in the same way all data’s manipulated. I mean actual, active, ongoing manipulation.

If that happens, it’s just another example of the ironic phenomenon which defines politics in Trump’s America: There are in fact all sorts of conspiracies afoot, just like Trump claims. But they’re all perpetrated by him.

Trump’s decision to fire BLS chief Erika McEntarfer should be a clarion call, but as discussed in the latest Weekly, most observers, including Trump’s critics, will sweep it under the rug out of psychological necessity. The alternative is admitting American democracy’s lost. No one will do that.

Take Elizabeth Warren, for example. “Instead of helping people get good jobs, Donald Trump just fired the statistician who reported bad jobs data that the wannabe king doesn’t like,” she sneered, in response to McEntarfer’s ouster. With all due respect senator, if Trump can do whatever he wants, unchecked by Congress and the courts, he’s not a “wannabe” anymore. He’s the genuine article.

I’d suggest we’re on the cusp of a bull market in privately-produced US macro data, but it’s not lost on the good folks who produce such figures that in the event their tallies diverge too starkly from the numbers produced by Trump’s BLS, the administration could conjure an excuse to sue.

You’ll scoff. Then it’ll happen. Then you’ll pretend it’s not evidence of autocracy, because if you don’t (pretend), you’d have to admit America’s lost to us. We’ve been doing this dance for nearly a decade.

For now, markets are free to vote against Trump’s worst impulses. I don’t know if, how or when, the McEntarfer drama will impact US asset prices, but this is probably a good time to remind yourself that no, the stock and bond markets aren’t organic life forms which exist “out there” somewhere, unbeholden and possessed of an inalienable right to dissent.

If Trump can deport people to foreign prisons in violation of court orders and if he can remove independent agency heads at the drop of a hat, without cause, he can close the stock market.

I’m not sure if this has occurred to everyone or not, but more or less everything Trump’s done since January is something everyone insisted he wouldn’t and, more to the point, couldn’t, do. What we’re finding out is that in fact, a US president determined to rule as an autocrat can do just that.

The New York Times described an “unmistakable message” from McEntarfer’s Apprentice-like exit. “Government officials who deal in data now fear they have to toe the line or risk losing their jobs,” Peter Baker wrote. “Career scientists, longtime intelligence analysts and nonpartisan statisticians who serve every president regardless of political party, now face pressure as never before to conform to the alternative reality enforced by the president and his team” on matters ranging from weather patterns to jobs growth.

Officials unwilling to toe that line may well choose to simply resign. Like Adriana Kugler. Of course, that’s just what Trump wants. Late last week, he claimed Kugler’s resignation was attributable to a dispute with Jerome Powell over the proper course of policy — “the fact that she disagreed with somebody from her party,” as Trump put it.

The figure above, from BMO’s US rates team, is a reminder: It’s been three decades since two governors dissented at the same meeting, as Chris Waller and Miki Bowman did last week. Kugler, if you assume there’s any truth to Trump’s claims, would’ve made three. The optics for Powell would’ve been untenable.

Given that, I suppose it’s possible that Kugler’s resignation was her dissent not, as I framed it, an implicit criticism of Trump’s encroachments on US monetary policy. But unless and until she confirms Trump’s account, his assertion of a disagreement isn’t “a fact.” It’s just speculation. Or a lie. And it should probably be noted that Powell’s not “from” Kugler’s “party,” as Trump asserted. Kugler’s a Democrat. Powell’s a lifelong Republican.

Whatever the case, Trump described himself as “very happy” to see Kugler go. It’s now widely assumed that Trump’s nominee to fill Kugler’s open spot on the Fed Board will become a kind of de facto Chair. A Judas to Powell’s Jesus. That is of course assuming Trump doesn’t force Powell out. Following Kugler’s resignation, Trump said Powell should leave too. “She knew he was doing the wrong thing on Interest Rates,” he said. “He should resign also!”

The data docket’s very light in the US this week. The marquee release is ISM services on Tuesday. The headline’s seen in expansion territory, at 51.5. On Thursday, the BLS will release its first estimate of Q2 productivity and unit labor costs. Those figures, I assume, will be very favorable.


 

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8 thoughts on “Alternative Facts

  1. I predict a nasty recession is on the way followed by hyper inflation owing to over cutting of rates and a return to QE in reaction followed by a GFC level debt bubble implosion. At this point Trump will finally die and free us from our self created misery but leaving us a nuclear winter of an economy and country to rebuild.

    To quote Will Ferrell as W – “You’re welcome America!”

    1. This is my expectation as well, but I would go further and said that it will all lead to the collapse of the US banking system worse than the Great Depression. At least this is the path we are on.

      Trump could die or he could be impeached by a Dem controlled house in Jan 2027. Getting enough votes to remove would rest on if the economy is bad enough for 10-12 Republicans to join the Senate Dems.

  2. What’s worse? Having to be the unfortunate soul that comes forth with bad news, or the yes man who is told to stand up and defend the stupid action of the president ?

  3. I’d make a substantial wager that the offices of reps and senators have been received substantially more calls etc from their constituents about the Epstein “coverup” than about the BLS firing. Especially in GOP districts. It’s what your friends and neighbors on Main Street cares about.

    Nor, it seems, does Wall Street. If the president appoints Stephen Miran to Kugler’s seat, our colleagues on Wall AStreet just might get a little fidgety. Or not.

  4. For all those that waived Project 2025 in the air including Warren, most clearly did not read it all or listen to Russ Vought when he said ““We want the bureaucrats to be traumatically affected,” he said. “When they wake up in the morning, we want them to not want to go to work because they are increasingly viewed as the villains. We want their funding to be shut down…” All Project 2025 boxes are getting checked off!

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