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Neon Swan: What Just Happened In Taiwan?
If a six-standard-deviation event's a black swan, what's a 20-sigma-event? What color swan is that?
It’s been a while since I read Taleb but I got the impression this is what he meant by black swan (its risk is not properly given by the Gaussian distribution) and 2 sigma should properly be like, white with ruffled feathers?
Nevermind I somehow managed to not understand just how many sigmas this was
Yeah. 20. Twenty.
Somehow, I gotta believe that TSMC was on the agenda of topics discussed in any trade/tariff conversations. As of 2022, TSMC was 25% of Taiwan’s GDP. I happened to be driving by north Phoenix yesterday- and, holy moly, the TSMC campus is HUGE and growing. Entire home communities are being built to house workers.
Saudi Arabia seems to have accepted the present reality of lower oil prices without attempting to prop them up by simply cutting production. Taiwan is allowing their currency to appreciate vs. the dollar. Dumb question: is the purpose of this opening phase of the trade war perhaps to break China’s peg on the yuan, or to force them to defend it, rather than just pressuring U.S. companies to re-shore?
When US companies by chips from TSMC, are the contracts in USD or TWD? No obvious reaction in TSMC local shares.