Congratulations to Donald Trump: Headed into the US afternoon on Friday, he was set to secure bragging rights for the longest run of S&P 500 daily gains in two decades.
I’ll confess to giggling. Or I guess “chuckling” is more accurate. As a self-important, smug bastard, I don’t know how to “giggle.”
This — an uninterrupted run of stock gains hot on the heels of the fastest two-day stock crash since Lehman — is just the sort of thing you’d expect from Trump, who’s volatility personified.
Recall, if you will, that at one point last month, Trump succeeded in crashing the S&P 15% in just 15 hours of cash trading. Had the index closed at the lows on April 7 (it didn’t), Trump would’ve held the land speed record for fastest time to -15% since 1940, barring only 1987. Quite a feat. In fact, if I were I him, I might’ve bragged about it, Clark Griswold, “50 yards“-style.
Fast forward three weeks, and stocks are runnin’ like they stole something (democracy, maybe). Have a look at the figure below.
The S&P streak mentioned here at the outset had the index up 10% in nine sessions. Less than a month ago, it was down nearly 13% measured on the same rolling nine-session lookback.
The MAGA faithful worships Trump as a messiah, and I gotta agree he’s a miracle — just not in the way his disciples are inclined to think. Rather, it’s a miracle that one man’s capable of creating the kind of stock oscillations that are otherwise the purview of shocks and crises.
In their own coverage of the same winning streak, Bloomberg noted that the 10% rally illustrated above was more pronounced than the cumulative gain notched during any of nearly three-dozen historical nine-session runs.
I suppose I don’t have to say this, but: Don’t get too comfortable. The odds that we’ve seen the last of the wild swings are quite low, particularly given that Trump tends to view stock rallies as an opportunity to re-escalate. On every front.
“As President Trump would say, it’s going to be the best economy anybody has ever seen,” Maria Bartiromo enthused on Friday, following a solid jobs report. “Look, we’ve got a market that is reflecting that.”
You commented that Trump’s moves were like those of the past weeks came only in “shocks and crises.” For the average Joe or Donna, there have been two crises, so far – the one down AND the one up. Almost everyone is left way underwater. Almost everyone missed the crash turn – and certainly didn’t go uber-short and then finding that bottom – oh-my-God!. Did you carry a full long going up? I am a bear so I couldn’t possibly. Are we going to new highs? No – as tariffs are coming back – that’s what he says. Then what? Bottom line, most lost 4% to 7% and we are all still in a crisis – or a string of them..
Yeah same. I anticipated a s**tshow when I heard the administration was going to call 4/2 “Liberation Day” and went 50% cash. Of course, the other 50% did poorly. But to your point, I missed the bottom and am still sitting on the cash. For the lack of conviction, I’ve been day trading it. . . .
Go Maria.
Agree that Trump will “re-escalate.” He may use market recovery as cover to fire Powell one week from today after market close.
Too soon to cut rates
Says Jay, Cue Truth Social blasts.
Time to buy SPY puts
Speculation is still rampant as well. I would venture we will get a true double-bottom before we get any lasting move up (and we would be lucky at that, what with Captain Capricious at the helm).
Trump’s gonna have a big parade, with millions lined up as he goes through town.
The folks will cheer and sing, and flowers they will bring. You will not see one person wear a frown.
Trump’s limousine will solemnly come rolling. Melania will be smiling there inside.
The cameras from Fox will zoom in on the box, where Trump will lay, full of formaldehyde.
Not a fan of fan fiction, but this may turn me around on that.
Time to check my Nostrodamas tomes and see if I can find the lines that refer to this mass celebration.