Microsoft, Meta Beat Estimates As Big-Tech Sturdy

Microsoft results can be a tough cover.

A lot depends on what Amy Hood says during the call, and there are times when the outlook, particularly the Azure guide, is all that ends up mattering for the next day’s trade.

I gave up a long time ago trying to read those particular tea leaves in favor of simply documenting the numbers and leaving the rest to analysts. Analysts like Evercore’s Kirk Materne, who gets paid multiples of a registered nurse’s salary to come up with lines like this one, from his earnings preview: “We believe the Azure results and guidance as well as Microsoft’s commentary on capex are going to be the keys to the quarter.” I mean, Jesus Christ. I should’ve been a tech analyst. The bar for “insightful” isn’t very high, apparently.

Anyway, Microsoft had a good quarter. $70.1 billion on the top-line was up 13% YoY and beat estimates. The Street was looking for $68.5 billion.

This marks the first quarter of accelerating revenue growth in a year. The figure above also shows Azure growth, which clocked in at 33% GAAP and 35% in constant currency terms. Overall Cloud sales were $42.4 billion, basically in line. Intelligent Cloud revenue was $26.8 billion, a beat (analysts wanted $25.99 billion there).

“Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs and accelerate growth,” Satya Nadella said Wednesday, in nebulous remarks accompanying the press release. “From AI infrastraucture and platforms to apps, we are innovating across the stack to deliver for our customers,” he went on.

Nadella, Andy Jassy and Sundar Pichai may as well just answer every question with “AI,” “Cloud” or, better, “AI and Cloud.” “Can you tell us a little about what you see driving growth this quarter?” “AI and Cloud.” “If you can only get one thing right this year, what would it be?” “AI.” “Let’s say you can get two things right, what are they?” “AI and Cloud.” “You find an injured ferret, nurse it back to health and decide to keep it as a pet. What’s it’s name?” “AI.” “Old men often shout and shake their fists at these marshmallow-like climate occurrences.” “What are Clouds, Alex?”

The rest of Microsoft’s numbers were fine. Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $29.9 billion against $29.65 billion seen. More Personal Computing sales of $13.4 billion were easily ahead of the $12.67 billion analysts expected. Operating income was $32 billion versus an estimated $30.31 billion. EPS of $3.46 beat by a quarter.

Again, these results were unequivocally good, particularly considering all the uncertainty swirling around everything from the wisdom of AI capex outlays post-DeepSeek to Donald Trump’s tariffs. Unless Hood and Nadella spring a surprise on the call — e.g., a poor Azure guide or a capex outlook that’s just a mile ahead of expectations — it’s hard to see investors finding too much in the way of fault here.

Meanwhile, over at Mark’s dojo (remember: Zuckerberg’s a ninja now; a ninja who dresses like a rapper), Meta rang up $42.31 billion of revenue last quarter, more than the $41.38 billion consensus saw.

As the figure shows, the YoY growth rate, 16%, was the slowest since Q2 2023. I’m not sure that matters, frankly. As long as Mark beats and grows the top-line at a decent clip, that’ll be good enough if he can keep expenses under control.

That — the expense point — is a big “if,” but the company did cut its full-year expense outlook on Wednesday to between $113 billion and $118 billion, from $114 billion to $119 billion.

The capex guide was high, though. Meta now sees full-year 2025 capital expenditures of between $64 billion and $72 billion, up meaningfully from the company’s prior outlook of $60 billion to $65 billion. Not surprisingly, the release cited “additional data center investments to support artificial intelligence efforts as well as an increase in the cost of infrastructure hardware.” The Street expected $59.27 billion in capex for 2025, so that obviously needs to come up.

Look, I’m not a computer scientist, I struggle sometimes to update the software on my iPhone (“How many goddamn times do I have to re-enter my pin?!”) and on a lot of days, I wish technology would just go away. So I suppose I don’t know what I’m talking about. That said, this AI capex spend feels like a black hole at times, and everyone still seems to be operating in a mindset that says “more’s always better,” as opposed to asking “how can we maybe do more with less?”

Mark reminded investors Wednesday that he’s working on some AI glasses. There’s “good progress” on that product, he said, and much as it pains me to say this as a lifelong Apple fan, anything’s going to be better than that enormous headset Tim Cook built. I said it then, and I’ll say it again: Those things — the “Vision Pro” set — could’ve let you see into the future and people still wouldn’t have bought them. Because no one wants to walk around in public with a giant set of ski goggles on.

Meta guided for between $42.5 and $45.5 billion of current quarter revenue. The midpoint there’s basically in line with expectations. Capex should be $14.75 billion in Q2. “We’ve had a strong start to an important year, our community continues to grow and our business is performing very well,” Zuckerberg said. EPS of $6.43 was up 37% YoY and blew away consensus. Meta’s operating margin, at 41%, constituted a 400bps beat.

All in all, these results — from Microsoft and Meta — suggest big US tech’s doing just fine, and given the extent to which big-tech CEOs have shown every inclination to endear themselves to Trump, it’s reasonable to assess that he’ll do what he can to spare them the worst of whatever’s coming. And even let them profit from it where he can.


 

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10 thoughts on “Microsoft, Meta Beat Estimates As Big-Tech Sturdy

  1. Of all the Megas, META is in the best position to benefit from AI near term, by internally using AI to improve every aspect of its own business: better advertising, more content, driving up screen time (+6-7% FB/IG), more ads, higher pricing (ad price +10%).

    META has the technical chops to build, test, adopt, improve its AI usage, in a way that its users (consumers and advertisers) could never manage on their own, and can leverage its work over hundreds of millions of users who are, in the end, all basically doing the same thing. Compare to waiting for Office users to use Co-Pilot, or for Salesforce customers to use agents. META can, in effect, drive AI usage more rapidly than users might choose on their own.

    META also does a good job of laying out its pipeline of future growth areas. Topline growth +16% slowed from 4Q but ad volume +5% should improve as Threads gets monetized. DAP +6% but META is inching closer to monetizing WhatsApp and Messenger.

    Reality Labs’ $4BN loss seems hardly worth fussing about – it is basically META’s R&D expense, and AR in AI glasses is easier to imagine being widely adopted than VR goggles. Slightly lowered expense guidance, and note COGS excluding D&A as pct of revenue is breaking to new lows, maybe shows more work being done by AI? By end 2025, Zuckerberg thinks his AI will replace mid-level software engineers and “AI will be doing research on AI”, so investors are licking their lips at the RIFs to come.

    Note that to date, META’s internal AI use has been error-tolerant (so what if a user gets shown suboptimal or too much/too little wrong content/ads) but this may change as it rolls out AI agents intended to handle customer interaction and make business decisions for advertisers.

    Finally, falloff in Chinese e-commerce advertising was acknowledged but is supposedly baked into guidance. Seeing META (guide to) easily handling a precipitous drop from what had been a major driver of growth, investors will be reassured.

    Good quarter, good guide. I was cautious into the quarter, and wrong.

    1. JL – do you personally ever click through on ads and actually spend money on a product or service being pushed at you?

      Obviously some folks do, but I wonder if they are in the top 5% or the rest of us travelling in steerage. That may become an increasingly important distinction going forward, no?

        1. The glasses do sound cool.

          But where were those pants made? And at what kind of price point? I’m just trying to figure out who will be spending large amounts advertising on the platform. Automakers? VRBO? Tiffany? Pharma vendors? After all, they ARE an ad-driven business, no?

          1. The pants were made in China, regardless of the Japan-style marketing.

            So you’re hitting on my concern. META and to a large extent GOOG are basically advertising businesses. Advertising is one of the first things to get cut in a downturn. Bulls say other channels get cut first – print, lesser online platforms, maybe TV – while the “premier” online platforms are resilient. META’s 2Q guide implies they see advertising holding up so far. But we know from 2022 that their advertising business ultimately got hit too. Maybe that slump was all AAPL’s fault, maybe AI-created campaigns are game-changers, but we also know 2022 wasn’t even a mini-recession.

      1. I’m also a satisfied user of the Ray-Ban Meta smartglasses, and when they introduce the version with screens I’ll probably buy those too. I even tried working in VR with Oculus VR googles, it wasn’t fully successful but I can see when I won’t have to haul a heavy case of screens on vacations.

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