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Featured

It’s All Relative

October 27, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Lula!

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026

Markets

Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • BONDS!!!

    October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

economy

It’s A Big Week

October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026

Geopolitics

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

France Can’t Even Save Itself, Let Alone NATO

October 18, 2026October 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

We’re Scaring Ourselves Into Bank Runs Now

March 24, 2023April 2, 2023

On Friday morning, while documenting what was shaping up to be a rough session for

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14 Comments on We’re Scaring Ourselves Into Bank Runs Now

Deutsche Bank In Spotlight As CDS Blows Out, Shares Dive

March 24, 2023March 26, 2023

Never a dull moment. Banking crisis headlines enveloped Deutsche Bank on Friday, when sharp moves

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7 Comments on Deutsche Bank In Spotlight As CDS Blows Out, Shares Dive

Services PMI Nods Strongly To US Wage-Price Spiral

March 24, 2023March 25, 2023

The good news is, the US economy is still humming along. That’s also the bad

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7 Comments on Services PMI Nods Strongly To US Wage-Price Spiral

Cash Reigns

March 24, 2023March 25, 2023

The rush into cash continues unabated. Money market fund assets ballooned by an additional $117.4

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4 Comments on Cash Reigns

Fed’s Foreign Repo Facility Sees $60 Billion Draw

March 23, 2023March 23, 2023

Usage of the Fed’s newly-created liquidity facility for besieged US lenders more than quadrupled over

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TikTok CEO Says Xi Jinping Not Hiding In App

March 23, 2023March 24, 2023

TikTok CEO Shou Chew spent his Thursday being interrogated by US lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

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4 Comments on TikTok CEO Says Xi Jinping Not Hiding In App

Households Could Sell Up To $1.1 Trillion In Stocks: Goldman

March 23, 2023March 23, 2023

Equities aren’t the only game in town anymore when it comes to asset allocation. Maybe

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1 Comment on Households Could Sell Up To $1.1 Trillion In Stocks: Goldman

How FOMC Coverage Should Be Done

March 23, 2023March 23, 2023

Following the March FOMC decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference, I was struck (again) by

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It’s Not A Wage-Price Spiral. It’s ‘Greedflation’!

March 23, 2023April 2, 2023

Price gouging! That’s the culprit for high inflation. I like it as a thesis. I

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19 Comments on It’s Not A Wage-Price Spiral. It’s ‘Greedflation’!

Ambiguous New Home Sales Suggests Prices Firmed After Drop

March 23, 2023March 24, 2023

The pace of new US home sales was slightly slower than expected last month, data

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11 In A Row: Bank Of England Hikes Again

March 23, 2023March 24, 2023

A day on from the release of data showing food inflation in the UK exceeded

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Could Janet Yellen Guarantee All Bank Deposits If She Had To?

March 22, 2023March 22, 2023

If something goes terribly wrong, and lawmakers on Capitol Hill are slow to react, could

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1 Comment on Could Janet Yellen Guarantee All Bank Deposits If She Had To?

Some Additional Hikes. Maybe.

March 22, 2023March 23, 2023

“How confident” is the Fed that America’s banking crisis is “contained,” a reporter from the

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5 Comments on Some Additional Hikes. Maybe.

Fed Delivers Dovish Hike Amid Bank Crisis

March 22, 2023March 27, 2023

“The US banking system is sound and resilient,” the Fed insisted Wednesday, while pulling the

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4 Comments on Fed Delivers Dovish Hike Amid Bank Crisis

Down Payments Plunge As US Housing Bubble Cools

March 22, 2023

Down payments are plunging in the US housing market. I should probably refrain from weighing

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1 Comment on Down Payments Plunge As US Housing Bubble Cools

Blankfein Suggests Wall Street’s First Republic Rescue Was Bad Idea

March 22, 2023March 22, 2023

Lloyd Blankfein — who, for those unfamiliar, ran a bank at one point — isn’t

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2 Comments on Blankfein Suggests Wall Street’s First Republic Rescue Was Bad Idea

The Biggest Confidence Game In History

March 22, 2023March 23, 2023

Much of the debate around how the Fed should approach the tradeoff between the inflation

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7 Comments on The Biggest Confidence Game In History

Food, Bar Inflation Now Off The Charts In UK

March 22, 2023March 23, 2023

“Disastrous” might be too strong an adjective. It usually is. But some less severe synonym

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2 Comments on Food, Bar Inflation Now Off The Charts In UK

The Crisis That Wasn’t?

March 21, 2023March 22, 2023

A pre-FOMC limbo found investors biding time. It didn’t feel like a “crisis” day. Indeed,

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3 Comments on The Crisis That Wasn’t?

Universal Deposit Guarantee Seems Inevitable After SVB

March 21, 2023March 21, 2023

Maybe this goes without saying, but on the off chance it’s not obvious, it bears

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Monumental Surge In US Home Sales Is Sideshow In Bank Drama

March 21, 2023March 22, 2023

Surprise! The two-month re-acceleration in US pending home sales translated into a blockbuster month for

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4 Comments on Monumental Surge In US Home Sales Is Sideshow In Bank Drama

Rates Shorts Suffer ‘Stop-Out Of Their Lives’ Amid 8-Sigma Trend Shock

March 21, 2023March 22, 2023

Whatever happens from here — where in this case that means even if bank contagion

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1 Comment on Rates Shorts Suffer ‘Stop-Out Of Their Lives’ Amid 8-Sigma Trend Shock

Stocks Have Never Been This Oblivious To Rates

March 21, 2023March 21, 2023

The broader equity market’s resilience in the face of head-spinning volatility in US rates is

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Bank Failures Raise Awareness Of ‘Systemic Credit Events,’ Poll Shows

March 21, 2023March 22, 2023

If you ask fund managers who together steward some $600 billion in AUM, the biggest

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Goldman On The Fed: ‘The Inflation Fight Can Wait Six Weeks’

March 20, 2023March 21, 2023

Over the weekend, during an interview with Fareed Zakaria, Lloyd Blankfein said that in his

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4 Comments on Goldman On The Fed: ‘The Inflation Fight Can Wait Six Weeks’

Risk Of Minsky Moment High With ‘Airplane In A Tailspin’

March 20, 2023March 20, 2023

Even if the Fed decided to lean decisively dovish this week, it may not matter.

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3 Comments on Risk Of Minsky Moment High With ‘Airplane In A Tailspin’

Xi, Putin Revel In Pageantry As Show Of Defiance

March 20, 2023April 2, 2023

Upon arriving in Russia Monday, Xi Jinping was greeted on the runway by a military

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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