For obvious reasons, market participants were keen to hear from Jamie Dimon on Friday.
JPMorgan’s Q1 results constituted what I think it’s fair to describe as an across-the-board beat, but investors were especially interested in Dimon’s take on the outlook given recent events and his role in the effort to stabilize First Republic last month.
On JPMorgan’s call, Dimon weighed in at considerable length on a wide variety of topics. Given the level of interest, I think it’s well worth highlighting some key passages. Below, find selected excerpts, arranged by topic.
On how SVB may impact the regulatory landscape for big banks:
We’re hoping everyone takes a deep breath, looks at what happened, and the breadth and depth of regulations already in place. Obviously, when something happens like this, you should adjust and think about it. Down the road, there may be some limitations on held-to-maturity… more scrutiny and stuff like that. But it doesn’t have to be a revamp of the whole system. It’s just recalibrating things the right way. I think it should be done knowing what you want the outcome to be. The outcome you should want is very strong community and regional banks. We do expect higher capital from Basel IV effectively. Obviously, there’s going to be an FDIC assessment. That will be what it is.
On whether recent events will cause a “credit crunch”:
I wouldn’t use the words credit crunch. Obviously, there’s going to be a little bit of tightening. And most of that will be around certain real estate. You’ve heard it from real estate investors already. So, I just look at that as a kind of thumb on the scale. It just makes the financ[ing] conditions a little bit tighter [and] increases the odds of a recession. It’s not like a credit crunch.
On the longer-term impact of “higher for longer” rates and where problems could show up, from CRE to duration mismatch to shadow banks, and whether the latter could boomerang back to JPMorgan:
There is a risk of higher rates for longer. And don’t just think of the Fed funds rate. Think about the five- and 10-year rate. People should prepare. They saw what just happened when rates went up beyond expectations. You had the gilt problem in London. You had some of the banks here. People need to be prepared for the potential of higher rates for longer. If and when that happens, it [could create] problems in the economy for those who are too exposed to floating rates or those who are too exposed to refi risk. I say to all of our clients, now would be the time to fix it. Do not put yourself in a position where that risk is excessive for your company, your business, your investment pools, etc. That’s answer number one. Number two is it will not come back to JPMorgan. Okay? While we do provide credit to what you call “shadow banks,” we think it’s very, very secure. That does not mean it won’t come back to other credit providers.
To Mike Mayo, who asked, “To what degree are you willing to sacrifice JPMorgan shareholder money to help rescue problem banks that don’t get their asset liability management right?”
Look, we’d like to help the system when it needs help if we reasonably can. And we’re not the only ones. You saw a lot of banks do that. And I was proud of them. I think all of us did the right thing, whether ultimately, it works out or not, you could second guess that when it happens. But I think people want to help the system. And this whole banking theme is bad for banks. I knew that the second I saw the headline. And you have Credit Suisse. We want healthy community banks. We want healthy regional banks. We want to help them get through this. We have — remember, Mike, as you pointed out — we have the best financial system the world has ever seen. That does not mean it won’t have problems. It doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be changes made, but I think it’s reasonable for people to help each other in times of need. All of us did that during COVID. If you could, you did it during the financial crisis. And I would expect people do that going forward.
To Mike Mayo, who also asked what Dimon meant in his shareholder letter when he suggested the regional banking turmoil might not be over:
The number of banks offside, you can count on your hands in terms of too much interest rate exposure, too much ATM, too much uninsured deposits. So, there may be additional bank failures, something like that, which we don’t know. But you’re going to see next week regional banks have pretty good numbers. You’ve already seen things calm down quite a bit, particularly in deposit flows. Warren Buffett was on TV talking about he would bet $1 million — I don’t know if you saw that — that no depositor will lose money in America. He is a very bright man.

The only reason Dimon will “help” other banks is to make money.