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Featured

Frozen Bubble

October 27, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026

Markets

Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • BONDS!!!

    October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

economy

It’s A Big Week

October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026

Geopolitics

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Xi, Putin Revel In Pageantry As Show Of Defiance

March 20, 2023April 2, 2023

Upon arriving in Russia Monday, Xi Jinping was greeted on the runway by a military

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Big Picture Takeaways From The Credit Suisse Bond Wipeout

March 20, 2023

Crises have a tendency to shine a light on what, to laypeople anyway, are esoteric

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1 Comment on Big Picture Takeaways From The Credit Suisse Bond Wipeout

The Swiss Killed The CoCos

March 20, 2023April 2, 2023

“Put on your big boy pants.” That was Jeff Gundlach’s advice to disgruntled “gunslingers” who

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6 Comments on The Swiss Killed The CoCos

Amazon Job Cuts Spread To AWS

March 20, 2023March 21, 2023

Ok, let’s recap how we got here. In late April of last year, while unveiling

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1 Comment on Amazon Job Cuts Spread To AWS

Mike Wilson Sees Bank Crisis As Bear Market Crescendo

March 20, 2023March 20, 2023

“The risk of a credit crunch has increased materially, in our view,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike

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5 Comments on Mike Wilson Sees Bank Crisis As Bear Market Crescendo

Fed Swap Line Announcement Betrays Serious Concern

March 19, 2023

On the heels of a frantic weekend during which the Swiss government orchestrated a historic

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Book Closes On Credit Suisse After 167 Years

March 19, 2023April 2, 2023

Going once, going twice, sold! For a princely CHF0.76. Credit Suisse was forced into the

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8 Comments on Book Closes On Credit Suisse After 167 Years

Switzerland’s Plan B: Nationalizing Credit Suisse

March 19, 2023March 19, 2023

To describe the shotgun wedding between UBS and Credit Suisse as “complex” would be to

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Moment Of Truth Arrives For Fed In Crisis Mode

March 19, 2023March 22, 2023

There was little utility in parsing the macroeconomic nuance ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting.

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9 Comments on Moment Of Truth Arrives For Fed In Crisis Mode

Putin Shows Up In Mariupol After Arrest Warrant Issued

March 19, 2023March 19, 2023

A wanted man traveled to Ukraine this weekend. In a surprise move, Vladimir Putin showed

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UBS Offers To Buy Credit Suisse For A Song In 2008 Echo

March 19, 2023March 19, 2023

After 48 hours of what one certainly imagines were tense negotiations with Swiss authorities, UBS

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3 Comments on UBS Offers To Buy Credit Suisse For A Song In 2008 Echo

Midsize Banks Request Full FDIC Pledge. White House Talks To Buffett

March 18, 2023March 20, 2023

Evidently, America’s small- and midsize banks are still very concerned about deposit flight. In a

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11 Comments on Midsize Banks Request Full FDIC Pledge. White House Talks To Buffett

UBS Takeover Of Credit Suisse Seen Imminent

March 18, 2023March 18, 2023

“I can’t imagine the Swiss authorities won’t do anything in the event of a real

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4 Comments on UBS Takeover Of Credit Suisse Seen Imminent

Trump Says He’ll Likely Be Arrested

March 18, 2023March 25, 2023

Donald Trump is going to be arrested on Tuesday. That’s according to Trump himself who,

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22 Comments on Trump Says He’ll Likely Be Arrested

China’s Economic Recovery Questioned As PBoC Retains Easing Bias

March 18, 2023March 19, 2023

Allegedly, China’s economic recovery was going so well last month that Party officials were taken

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2023 As Year Of The Recession-Causing Credit Crunch

March 17, 2023March 17, 2023

The case for fear and, more to the point, recession, isn’t difficult to make now.

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Arrest Warrant Issued For Putin

March 17, 2023March 18, 2023

The International Criminal Court on Friday issued an arrest warrant for one “Mr. Vladimir Putin”

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9 Comments on Arrest Warrant Issued For Putin

Maintaining The ‘Moral Hazard Bid’

March 17, 2023March 17, 2023

Not even bank runs (and bank collapses) are sufficient to compel equity investors to capitulate.

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Behind The Scenes Of An American Bank Panic

March 17, 2023April 2, 2023

In “Signs Of The Financial Apocalypse”+ (and yes, the title was mostly tongue-in-cheek) I talked briefly

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12 Comments on Behind The Scenes Of An American Bank Panic

America’s Mood Was Already Worsening On Eve Of Bank Crisis

March 17, 2023March 18, 2023

There wasn’t much to be gleaned about America’s still simmering bank crisis from the preliminary

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1 Comment on America’s Mood Was Already Worsening On Eve Of Bank Crisis

Cash! The Government Kind

March 17, 2023March 18, 2023

Investors rushed to safe cash over the past week like there was a pandemic afoot.

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3 Comments on Cash! The Government Kind

Signs Of The Financial Apocalypse

March 16, 2023March 16, 2023

If you’re wondering whether recent events — and by “recent events” I mean bank runs,

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1 Comment on Signs Of The Financial Apocalypse

First Republic Rescued, Dimon Met With Yellen

March 16, 2023March 20, 2023

America’s top bankers and key government officials seemed pretty pleased with themselves in the US

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14 Comments on First Republic Rescued, Dimon Met With Yellen

Wall Street Rescues First Republic. Executives Sold Stock Before Collapse

March 16, 2023March 16, 2023

The big guys (and Jane Fraser) came to the rescue for beleaguered First Republic, which

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Nascent Housing Recovery Faces New Test In Regional Bank Crisis

March 16, 2023March 17, 2023

Not surprisingly, US mortgage rates dropped over the last week alongside falling US yields. The

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2 Comments on Nascent Housing Recovery Faces New Test In Regional Bank Crisis

TikTok Gets A Biden Ultimatum

March 16, 2023March 16, 2023

The never-ending TikTok soap opera may finally be nearing some manner of resolution, albeit not

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3 Comments on TikTok Gets A Biden Ultimatum

ECB Forges Ahead Despite ‘Current Market Tensions’

March 16, 2023March 17, 2023

They pre-committed. So, they followed through. Consistent with the forward guidance that accompanied the February

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17 Comments on ECB Forges Ahead Despite ‘Current Market Tensions’

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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  • Old Cyclist on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • Brian Bretz on Around, Around We Go
  • derek on Around, Around We Go

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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