‘The Beam Of Democracy’

Emmanuel Macron was in China Wednesday visiting Xi Jinping.

Tsai Ing-wen was in Los Angeles to meet Kevin McCarthy along with a bipartisan group of US lawmakers.

That made for quite the juxtaposition and threw into stark relief the growing divergence between what Washington views as a necessarily inimical approach to Beijing and the more moderate stance favored by Brussels, and particularly Paris.

Macron who, along with Ursula von der Leyen, will be in China until Friday, could use a sojourn. Back home, he’s facing a crisis of government thanks to what still looks like an ill-conceived decision to raise the retirement age without a full vote in parliament.

Without delving too far into the specifics, suffice to say “ill-conceived” is a polite synonym for some of the more bombastic adjectives bandied about to describe Macron’s pension “reform” effort. The move was deeply unpopular with the French public and Macron’s method even more so. His approval rating was a lowly 28% as of two weeks ago. It’s probably even lower now, assuming that’s possible.

Macron has been styled by protesters in France as an aspiring autocrat and would-be king. Without lapsing into macabre hysterics, if you’re a French head of state, the royal comparisons are unwelcome, especially when they emanate from a furious citizenry increasingly prone to setting things on fire in the streets.

Maybe Macron will find a sympathetic ear in Beijing. Xi doesn’t much care for the democratic process either, and the Party has some experience in crowd control during periods of acute social unrest.

It was notable that Macron was described by the Party as being in China at Xi’s “invitation,” while von der Leyen was just “visiting.” Macron’s is a state visit. Von der Leyen is — I don’t know — sightseeing, I guess. (She’ll be present for official meetings with Xi on Thursday.)

Macron has, of course, attempted to middle man an amicable resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, although such efforts are complicated immeasurably by the fact that the EU is under direct threat. The risk of a Neville Chamberlain moment is as elevated as it’s been since… well, since Neville Chamberlain.

On Wednesday, Macron talked up China’s potential role in helping to resolve the war. “There are major international issues we need to work on together,” he told the French community in Beijing. “We need to engage China strategically and talk with them directly about Russian aggression and the consequences for Europe.”

The problem with Macron’s approach is glaringly obvious: China isn’t a neutral party. Not even close. Xi is a strategic ally of Vladimir Putin’s.

During Xi’s state visit to Moscow last month, Beijing seemingly insisted that descriptions of the Russia-China nexus included language clarifying that the two countries’ partnership isn’t a military alliance. But it’s now well established (and not just by Western intelligence) that Russia is receiving dual-use technology from Chinese SOEs, and that such imports are finding their way to the battlefield.

In February, just hours after Wang Yi left Moscow, China released a “peace plan” for Ukraine. It was widely dismissed in the West as a Kremlin wish list. I wouldn’t go that far, but I would (generously) call it unserious.

Russia’s war on Ukraine was an attack on Europe, and China won’t call it a “war.” Indeed, Beijing has steadfastly refused to employ language describing the conflict in any kind of unequivocal terms. That reluctance prevented G20 finance chiefs from releasing a joint statement following meetings in India in February.

Macron is, in essence, taking a state visit with an arm’s length wartime belligerent. “Thanks to its relationship with Russia, [China] can play a major role,” he said Wednesday. He’s right about that. And his allies in Washington worry that “major role” could eventually entail weapons shipments to the Kremlin.

Prior to his trip, Macron reassured the White House about France’s “steadfast support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression.” I’m not sure cavorting around with Xi is the best way to demonstrate that commitment. Apparently, Xi is going to take Macron on a road trip to Guangzhou this week after the formalities in Beijing are over.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Tsai and McCarthy met at the Reagan Library Wednesday. It was her second meeting with America’s third-ranking leader in eight months, and Beijing promised to respond. Presumably, any such response will wait until Macron is back in France. The optics of the PLA simulating another blockade of Taiwan while Macron is in town would be disastrous for Paris.

Commenting on Tsai’s LA visit, her deputy secretary general said “the beam of democracy and freedom shines like the California sunshine.”


 

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2 thoughts on “‘The Beam Of Democracy’

  1. I’ve always worried that Xi and his minions would wise up and understand that the MAGA Nazi party was just as authoritarian as they are and they have common interest in destroying democracy.

    At least Wisconsin voters had the chance to re-institute democracy for their state yesterday.

  2. Lord Palmerston allegedly said There are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends, only permanent interests. The French were listening. (We are all Anglophiles). John Mearsheimer would second this. The French have a history of trying to control the uncontrollable. (Germany?). They also understand the phrase Follow the Money…

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