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Featured

Frozen Bubble

October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026

Markets

Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • BONDS!!!

    October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

economy

It’s A Big Week

October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026

Geopolitics

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

‘Everything Is Fine’: Saudis Suggest Credit Suisse Turmoil Was Misunderstanding

March 16, 2023March 17, 2023

Yesterday, Ammar Al Khudairy was “absolutely not” going to invest another dollar (or riyal or

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2 Comments on ‘Everything Is Fine’: Saudis Suggest Credit Suisse Turmoil Was Misunderstanding

US Jobless Claims Plunge Most Since July

March 16, 2023March 16, 2023

So much for the spike in US jobless claims. Last week, data showed initial filers

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Bank Drama Hits GDP Forecasts As Goldman Cuts US Outlook

March 15, 2023March 16, 2023

What a difference a few weeks makes. This time last month, market participants were convinced

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1 Comment on Bank Drama Hits GDP Forecasts As Goldman Cuts US Outlook

Credit Suisse To Tap SNB For $54 Billion In Liquidity

March 15, 2023March 16, 2023

Near the close of US trading on Wednesday, the SNB and the Swiss Financial Market

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Credit Suisse In Talks With Swiss Government: Report

March 15, 2023March 15, 2023

The Swiss government is in talks with Credit Suisse about options to shore up confidence

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Credit Suisse Spirals As Bank Crisis Threatens To Claim A SIFI

March 15, 2023March 20, 2023

I’m the last person to yell “Fire!” in a crowded theater. I’m also instinctually averse

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7 Comments on Credit Suisse Spirals As Bank Crisis Threatens To Claim A SIFI

‘The Moment Is Upon Us’

March 15, 2023March 15, 2023

“It feels like that moment is upon us,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson wrote earlier this

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‘Many More Problems’ To Follow SVB Collapse, Dalio Says

March 15, 2023March 16, 2023

[Editor’s note: Ray Dalio occasionally conducts “ask me anything” sessions on social media, Reddit first

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3 Comments on ‘Many More Problems’ To Follow SVB Collapse, Dalio Says

Behold: The Most ‘Brutal’ CTA Shock In History

March 15, 2023March 15, 2023

It’s been a tough several days for… well, for pretty much everybody, really, except for

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4 Comments on Behold: The Most ‘Brutal’ CTA Shock In History

Fed ‘Pause’ Hopes Get Boost From PPI Drop

March 15, 2023March 15, 2023

US producer prices unexpectedly fell last month, data released on Wednesday showed. Separate figures, released

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5 Comments on Fed ‘Pause’ Hopes Get Boost From PPI Drop

Let’s Hope We Don’t Have To Worry About Credit Suisse

March 15, 2023March 15, 2023

The deluge of bank headlines continued unabated Wednesday, when Credit Suisse returned to the spotlight

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13 Comments on Let’s Hope We Don’t Have To Worry About Credit Suisse

America’s Banks May Face ‘Profitability Crisis’

March 14, 2023March 14, 2023

It still feels a bit like markets haven’t internalized (or are unwilling to come to

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2 Comments on America’s Banks May Face ‘Profitability Crisis’

US Investigates Old SVB As New SVB Courts Deposits

March 14, 2023

Not surprisingly, the US government has some questions for, and about, Silicon Valley Bank. Among

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Zuckerberg’s Layoff Letter Walked Out Of The Onion

March 14, 2023March 15, 2023

For the third time in as many months, I’m compelled to report that Mark Zuckerberg

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14 Comments on Zuckerberg’s Layoff Letter Walked Out Of The Onion

Meanwhile, In The Black Sea…

March 14, 2023March 15, 2023

Meanwhile, in the Black Sea, two Russian fighter pilots had a little fun with a

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1 Comment on Meanwhile, In The Black Sea…

What Should The Fed Do Now? Two Alternatives, Two Thoughts

March 14, 2023March 14, 2023

There are two lines of thinking when it comes to how the Fed should approach

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1 Comment on What Should The Fed Do Now? Two Alternatives, Two Thoughts

Inflation Argues For Fed Hikes, But Bank Turmoil Eyed

March 14, 2023March 20, 2023

Core inflation in the US rose slightly more than expected last month from January, data

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10 Comments on Inflation Argues For Fed Hikes, But Bank Turmoil Eyed

Fed Faces Impossible Optics, Difficult Tradeoffs After Banks Collapse

March 14, 2023March 15, 2023

As the US prepared to grapple with a fresh read on inflation, the market discussion

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15 Comments on Fed Faces Impossible Optics, Difficult Tradeoffs After Banks Collapse

What Strategists Say About America’s New Banking Crisis

March 13, 2023March 13, 2023

Needless to say, newsflow around the collapse of SVB was unrelenting on Monday. Equally unrelenting

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1 Comment on What Strategists Say About America’s New Banking Crisis

Kolanovic: All The Carry Trades Can’t Be Bailed Out

March 13, 2023March 14, 2023

JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic has a message for markets: “There are many carry trades, and they

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3 Comments on Kolanovic: All The Carry Trades Can’t Be Bailed Out

Regulatory And Policy Failures Made SVB A Grenade

March 13, 2023March 20, 2023

By now (where in this case “by now” means barely four days after everybody woke

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5 Comments on Regulatory And Policy Failures Made SVB A Grenade

McElligott: Deposit Flight ‘Not Solved’

March 13, 2023March 14, 2023

What are the ramifications of the events that shook the US financial system last week

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4 Comments on McElligott: Deposit Flight ‘Not Solved’

Panic Selling Grips Bank Shares

March 13, 2023March 13, 2023

Bank stocks were under siege Monday, for obvious reasons. On the off chance you haven’t

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Investors, Fed Were ‘Lulled To Sleep,’ Mike Wilson Says

March 13, 2023March 14, 2023

“The real story for equity markets is the impact of the Fed’s actions over the

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6 Comments on Investors, Fed Were ‘Lulled To Sleep,’ Mike Wilson Says

Melees And Suicide Missions

March 13, 2023March 14, 2023

Predictably given the circumstances, Monday was a market and media melee. I imagine every day

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15 Comments on Melees And Suicide Missions

Treasury, Fed Backstop SVB, Close Signature, Unveil Emergency Fund

March 12, 2023March 20, 2023

On Sunday evening in the US, Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen and FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg

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45 Comments on Treasury, Fed Backstop SVB, Close Signature, Unveil Emergency Fund

Fed To Pause Rate Hikes Amid SVB Drama: Goldman

March 12, 2023March 13, 2023

Last week, US rates underwent a dramatic about-face+ when the second-largest bank failure in the

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Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Mr. Lucky on Around, Around We Go
  • Mr. Lucky on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • John3D on Frozen Bubble
  • John Taylor on Around, Around We Go

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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