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Featured

Frozen Bubble

October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026

Markets

Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • BONDS!!!

    October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

economy

It’s A Big Week

October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026

Geopolitics

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Warnings, Panic, Shock: SVB Collapse Shakes Nation

March 12, 2023March 13, 2023

“Our sense of the range of institutions under scrutiny is that any issues are finite

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9 Comments on Warnings, Panic, Shock: SVB Collapse Shakes Nation

Inflation On Collision Course With Bank Drama As Traders Brace

March 12, 2023March 13, 2023

Just as the second-largest bank failure in US history easily overshadowed nonfarm payrolls last week,

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2 Comments on Inflation On Collision Course With Bank Drama As Traders Brace

Aramco Drills Up Cartoonish $161 Billion Annual Profit

March 12, 2023March 12, 2023

Saudi Aramco made a lot of money in 2022. Last year was a banner year

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Leave a Comment on Aramco Drills Up Cartoonish $161 Billion Annual Profit

America May Face Wave Of Bank Runs, Failures Without SVB Backstop

March 12, 2023March 12, 2023

The path forward following the Silicon Valley Bank fiasco looks pretty binary. One of two

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8 Comments on America May Face Wave Of Bank Runs, Failures Without SVB Backstop

Lost At Sea

March 11, 2023December 30, 2024

“There’s nothing there for you. You know that, right?” She was on her second glass

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10 Comments on Lost At Sea

How SVB Failed And What Might Happen Next

March 11, 2023March 20, 2023

“Despite the bank being in sound financial condition prior to March 9, investors and depositors…

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19 Comments on How SVB Failed And What Might Happen Next

Rates On Wild Ride As SVB Drama Downs Hawks

March 10, 2023March 10, 2023

If there was a sliver lining for bulls in this week’s banking sector fireworks, it

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1 Comment on Rates On Wild Ride As SVB Drama Downs Hawks

Fear Is Contagious

March 10, 2023March 12, 2023

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank dominated financial media coverage on Friday, overshadowing an update

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12 Comments on Fear Is Contagious

SVB Shuttered. FDIC Takes Over

March 10, 2023March 12, 2023

Now it’s official. California regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, the FDIC said. The

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7 Comments on SVB Shuttered. FDIC Takes Over

2023 Exodus From US Stock Funds Hits $42 Billion

March 10, 2023

The exodus from US equity funds is ongoing. Funds focused on US shares shed another

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Leave a Comment on 2023 Exodus From US Stock Funds Hits $42 Billion

SVB On Brink Of Collapse

March 10, 2023March 11, 2023

The bottom fell out entirely for SVB on Friday, when a planned capital raise reportedly

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8 Comments on SVB On Brink Of Collapse

US Jobs Report Comes Up Favorable For Fed

March 10, 2023March 15, 2023

The US economy added a consensus-topping 311,000 jobs in February, the government said Friday. Economists

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2 Comments on US Jobs Report Comes Up Favorable For Fed

In Geopolitical Coup, Xi Brokers Saudi-Iran Diplomatic Truce

March 10, 2023March 10, 2023

In a potentially pivotal development, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a provisional agreement to resume

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1 Comment on In Geopolitical Coup, Xi Brokers Saudi-Iran Diplomatic Truce

Flaming Butterflies

March 10, 2023March 10, 2023

The crisis at Silicon Valley Bank managed to outcompete US payrolls for space above the

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5 Comments on Flaming Butterflies

‘Stay Calm,’ It’s Just A Bank Run

March 10, 2023March 20, 2023

“Stay calm.” That was Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker’s exhortation to VCs during a

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10 Comments on ‘Stay Calm,’ It’s Just A Bank Run

$2.7 Trillion Stock Rally Hides First US Real Estate Drop Since 2012

March 9, 2023March 9, 2023

Last weekend, I suggested that if push comes to shove in the inflation fight, the

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Leave a Comment on $2.7 Trillion Stock Rally Hides First US Real Estate Drop Since 2012

For Entertainment Purposes Only

March 9, 2023March 15, 2023

I suppose I should pretend to have something introspective to say about Joe Biden’s budget,

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8 Comments on For Entertainment Purposes Only

Inflation ‘Persistent,’ ‘Resilient,’ ‘Broad-Based’

March 9, 2023March 9, 2023

Inflation is persistent. Perhaps you noticed. That’s the thing about inflation: Irrespective of its original,

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1 Comment on Inflation ‘Persistent,’ ‘Resilient,’ ‘Broad-Based’

GM Asks Salaried Employees To Step Out Of The Vehicle

March 9, 2023March 10, 2023

Add GM to the ranks of major US corporations looking to trim headcount. On Thursday,

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2 Comments on GM Asks Salaried Employees To Step Out Of The Vehicle

How Expensive Are US Equities?

March 9, 2023

US equity valuations are a source of extreme consternation for many investors currently. There are

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America’s Jobless Ranks Swell

March 9, 2023March 10, 2023

“Good” news! US jobless claims rose sharply last week. Note the scare quotes. Generally speaking,

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2 Comments on America’s Jobless Ranks Swell

Putin Hits Ukraine With ‘Truly Massive’ Aerial Barrage

March 9, 2023March 10, 2023

Russia launched hypersonic missiles, Iranian drones and nearly every other sort of projectile in its

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6 Comments on Putin Hits Ukraine With ‘Truly Massive’ Aerial Barrage

Jerome Powell’s Ad-Libs Don’t Help

March 8, 2023March 8, 2023

In everyday life, if you inadvertently cause confusion with something you say, it makes sense

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1 Comment on Jerome Powell’s Ad-Libs Don’t Help

Margin Squeeze May ‘Drive US Into Recession’: SocGen’s Edwards

March 8, 2023March 9, 2023

“It is the rear-guard action of companies that ’causes’ recessions as they slash both jobs

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4 Comments on Margin Squeeze May ‘Drive US Into Recession’: SocGen’s Edwards

Progress Towards US Labor Market Balance Maddeningly Slow

March 8, 2023March 15, 2023

US job openings were 10.824 million as of the last business day of January, critical

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Leave a Comment on Progress Towards US Labor Market Balance Maddeningly Slow

In Canada, A Watershed Pause

March 8, 2023March 9, 2023

In a watershed moment of sorts, The Bank of Canada paused its tightening campaign. Although

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3 Comments on In Canada, A Watershed Pause

Xi References ‘Winning Wars’ While Outlining Military Priorities

March 8, 2023

Soundbites out of the National People’s Congress remained foreboding on Wednesday. A day on from

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5 Comments on Xi References ‘Winning Wars’ While Outlining Military Priorities

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • dayjob on It’s All Relative
  • WMD on Around, Around We Go
  • Mr. Lucky on Around, Around We Go
  • Mr. Lucky on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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