Jeff Gundlach says a recession may be right around the corner.

That isn’t news. If I had a nickel for every time Jeff Gundlach said something bad was about to happen to the economy, markets or both, I’d be Jeff Gundlach.

A couple of days after telling a few hundred thousand social media followers that Fed cuts were likely at some point in the relatively near future, Gundlach told his friends at CNBC that “headwinds are building.” “I think the recession is here in a few months,” he said, suggesting the Fed may cut rates a couple of times in 2023.

Markets obviously agree, or at least about the likelihood of rate cuts. Plainly, and as discussed here ad nauseam, the odds of recession have increased following recent tumult in the banking system.

More narrowly, it’s worth noting that small-caps are sending a potentially ominous signal. The recent blast of underperformance that accompanied the banking crisis sticks out as acute.

“The equity market has not ignored this new incremental risk,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said, of stocks’ ostensible resilience in the face of disconcerting headlines out of the banking sector. “The market has re-priced internally.”

Of course, part of what you’re seeing in small-cap underperformance is the tech heavyweights. Once again, markets appear to be assigning a safety premium to America’s favorite mega-caps, despite a dramatic slowdown in top-line growth which (belatedly) validated some critics’ contention that the world’s best-known “growth” stocks are actually cyclicals.

If you ask Wilson, assuming tech is a haven could be a mistake. “Breadth has been exceptionally weak as large-cap growth stocks hold up the major averages, suggest[ing] the S&P 500 and NDX are unlikely to hold up under this classic migration to higher ground if a flood arrives,” he wrote, before reiterating his “long-standing view that technology companies are pro-cyclical and not as defensive as perhaps many market participants believe.”

Whatever the case, the underperformance from small-caps doesn’t look especially fortuitous. The figure above is simple, but perhaps instructive.

Wilson continues to caution investors that the bottom can fall out abruptly. “Be aware that the market can price [growth] concerns quickly even before company guidance is lowered,” he warned. “Just like the bond market, the equity market may reprice rapidly and without warning.”

Coming back to Gundlach, asked by CNBC’s Scott Wapner if he (Gundlach) disagrees with Christine Lagarde’s contention that central banks can fight inflation and guard against financial stability risks simultaneously, Gundlach said, “You can’t have it both ways. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.”