Beware The Latent Surge In Jobless Claims
Just take the money! It's free!
If I were a financial advisor (I'm not), that's what I'd tell anyone who hasn't considered shifting most of their short-term reserves away from bank deposits in favor of T-bills or a government money market fund.
It's also what I'd tell someone who could avail themselves of unemployment benefits but hasn't.
In a report released this week, the BLS said that in 2022, "about seven in 10" unemployed persons in the US who worked during the past 12 months (thereby ma
Or there is a whole cohort YOLO’ing in short-dated options instead for looking for a job. I could be wrong but it feels like this is a relatively new phenomenon that was fueled by Covid. This wouldn’t explain the lack of interest in UI though.
Is this new behaviour? That is, pre-COVID did 70% of eligible people not claim? If not new, then the current low number of claims should be taken at face value. If it is new, then there is a good reason to be concerned that a big jump will happen
My daughter and son-in-law have both been enjoying the fruits of hard work in technically related fields for over a decade. Both are now out of work because their firms were acquired by silly people. Both got severance, my daughter’s ends on June 1, her husband is good until Labor Day. Both of these folks were working at the Senior Director/VP level and will not sign up for unemployment for two reasons. First, as soon as they sign up they will have to start looking for work and they don’t want to do that yet. They have a very bright and very athletic son and they want to spend some time with him until school starts in the fall. Also, they want to find meaningful work that is satisfying and will add to their personal development. They could both get jobs next week. My daughter has already turned down two offers of 250k. As the Navy used to proclaim, “It’s not just a job, it’s an adventure.” That’s what my daughter, at least, is looking for. So they are both going to go without the extra $400/month. They can still afford their lives and I pitched in to cover their COBRA. Funny old world …
One other factor may affect the new trend. If the bureaucrats running UI make one go out on junk interviews to keep their benefits, repeatedly turning down the stupid jobs you are offered may soon reduce access if it gets around that you are not serious and that’s bad.
To collect unemployment, you only need to check the box that states you’re looking for work (vs. somehow demonstrating that you’re actually looking for work).
So your daughter has turned down two $250k-job offers, and you’re pitching in to cover their COBRA (while they’re collecting severance). That seems… inflationary.