‘Peak Pain’ From Fed Hikes Still ‘A Few Quarters’ Away, One Bank Says

"Peak pain" for the US economy from the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in a generation is likely "still a few quarters down the road." That's according to a recent note from Jefferies, whose Thomas Simons offered what I'll call a differentiated take on the macro outlook compared to the somewhat homogeneous assessments emanating from economics teams at America's largest banks. Simons warned on "false dawns" and "deeper drags" as the impact of policy tightening manifests on a lag. He pointed