A trio of bank failures had “limited impact on consumer sentiment” this month, Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan survey, said Friday.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that consumer moods were already deteriorating in early March prior to the implosion of SVB and the ensuing melee.

At the least, banking sector stress eroded sentiment at the margins, and indeed the headline index printed 62 in the final reading, down from the preliminary print and below estimates.

It was the first drop in four months and the largest since June of last year, when the index hit a record low amid soaring price growth and the first of what ended up being four super-sized, 75bps Fed hikes.

Both the current conditions and expectations gauges fell markedly. “Our data revealed multiple signs that consumers increasingly expect a recession,” Hsu said, noting that sentiment “fell across all demographic groups,” with some of the more severe declines observed among lower-income and less-educated Americans.

Data released earlier this week suggested consumers were mostly unbothered by the bank kerfuffle.

Notably, the final read on inflation expectations in the Michigan poll showed the year-ahead outlook softened further in the back half of the month. One-year expectations now stand at just 3.6%.

The five-year measure was revised higher by a tick, which in this case matters because 2.9% (versus 2.8%) puts the series back in the tight range observed since August of 2021.

All in all, the final read on the Michigan poll for March betrayed ongoing concerns about the economy, but little in the way of panic about banks.

The lowest year-ahead inflation reading since April of 2021 is certainly a welcome development. Taken with Friday’s cooler-than-expected read on core PCE price growth, I suppose you could suggest the last of this week’s data was constructive, if you don’t count the recessionary vibes.