At Least It’s Not Getting Worse, Analysts Say, As Fed Borrowing Stabilizes

Liquidity needs in the US banking sector are still elevated.

That was apparent from another week of heavy borrowing from the Fed at both the discount window and the newly-created bank term funding program.

These weekly updates are now key “high frequency” macro inputs, to the extent we can glean something from them about contagion risk or the scope and severity of banks’ deposit outflows. This week’s H.4.1 release would’ve garnered more attention on Thursday evening were it not for unprecedented domestic political developments.

Banks continued to migrate from the discount window to the BTFP, as expected. The Fed is keen to reduce the stigma traditionally associated with the former.

Borrowing from the window was $88.2 billion as of Wednesday and outstanding BTFP borrowing rose to $64.4 billion. Overall, $153 billion in usage between the two facilities was down slightly from the prior week.

As a share of total commercial bank assets, discount window borrowing is nowhere near GFC levels. Note that when scaled by the larger size of the banking system, emergency loans were larger for an extended period of time during the financial crisis than they were at the height of this month’s panic.

That’s useful context, and it was highlighted by Journal “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos.

FHLB issuance has settled back into a normal daily range, which suggests banks’ panicked rush for advances was precautionary, and is now abating materially.

FIMA usage, which grabbed headlines last week when the foreign repo facility saw its first large draw, presumably related to the SNB’s liquidity backstop for Credit Suisse, remained very elevated at $55 billion.

Bank liquidity needs are “marginally reduced,” TD’s Priya Misra said. Although the picture is “improving slightly,” the situation “remains uncertain because of the outflow of overall deposits,” she added.

Bottom line: Things aren’t “normal” and the problems aren’t “fixed,” but it’s not getting worse. And that’s not nothin’, as they say.


 

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