The US is “certainly” past peak inflation, Tom Barkin told CNBC on Wednesday, following a relatively benign CPI report.

That’s the good news. The bad news is “we still have a ways to go,” as Barkin put it, and that means the Fed has “more to do” when it comes to coaxing core inflation “down to where we’d like it to be.”

He was constructive, but cautious. It’s premature to declare victory, Barkin went on. Although demand has cooled, evidence that inflation has cracked is wanting thus far, he warned.

Barkin doesn’t vote this year, and it’s probably fair to say the Committee will be split on how to proceed following a presumed hike next month.

The Atlanta Fed’s “sticky” CPI measure retreated to just 4.7% for March on an annualized basis, the latest update showed. That was the lowest in 18 months. On a YoY basis, it’s still 6.6%, though.

If you ask Goldman, May’s hike will be the last. The bank changed their Fed call on Wednesday following the CPI report. They no longer see a hike in June.

Notably, it wasn’t CPI that changed Goldman’s mind. Or at least that wasn’t “the main reason.” Instead, Jan Hatzius and friends said that what little data is available thus far seems to “confirm that credit is indeed somewhat tight in the aftermath of the banking turmoil.”

On Tuesday, the March vintage of the NFIB survey reflected a sharp increase in respondents saying their last loan was harder to get, while more than a quarter of business owners who borrow said they paid a higher rate last month versus three months prior, the highest share in some 17 years.

Earlier this week, the New York Fed’s consumer poll suggested Americans are the most pessimistic about credit access in at least a decade+.

In their updated Fed call, Goldman cited recent Fedspeak in noting that “some officials appear hesitant about even a May hike.” If true, the bank said, that “raises the bar for the FOMC to agree to both hike and signal additional tightening not currently implied by the median dot.”

Later Wednesday, Mary Daly said tighter bank lending could reduce the need for Fed action, called the CPI report “good news,” said Fed forecasts don’t call for rate hikes at every meeting and suggested banks should recalibrate lending standards to reflect the evolving macro outlook.

I’m sure there’s an SVB joke or two to be had, but I’ll let readers write their own stand-up routine.