America’s small business owners are still “cynical.”

That’s according to the latest vintage of the NFIB survey, released on Tuesday.

These have felt repetitive for quite a while, and that’s not a good a thing considering how generally pessimistic owners have been since the onset of inflation in America.

The headline NFIB print, at 90.1, actually managed to beat estimates, but the index spent a 15th month below the five-decade average.

The outlook remains very poor. A measure of owners’ six-month expectations for business conditions sat at a net negative 47%. Last year, that measure reached a record low. It hasn’t meaningfully recovered.

Needless to say, markets are focused on credit conditions currently and particularly those for small firms which, lacking access to capital markets, can be more dependent on bank loans. Stress at local lenders could mean loans are harder to get going forward.

Although 29% of business owners in the NFIB survey said all their credit needs were met in March and 59% said they didn’t need a loan, a net 9% said their last loan was harder to get, up four points (or down four points), and the highest (or lowest) since 2012. The MoM drop was the most pronounced in two decades.

Similarly, a net 9% see more difficult credit conditions ahead, the most in 10 years, and more than a quarter of business owners who borrow said they paid a higher rate last month versus three months prior. That was the highest share in some 17 years.

The data came on the heels of the New York Fed’s consumer survey, which showed Americans were the most pessimistic+ on credit creation in series history last month.

Do note that many small firms operate in the consumer discretionary space. As Goldman recently noted+, such firms hire a lot of people and indeed, they’re responsible for a disproportionate share of “excess” hiring in the pandemic era. Consider also that small businesses comprise nearly half of private sector employees in the US and accounted for 62% of net new job creation since 1995, according to the government.

On Tuesday, the NFIB said hiring plans “fell to their lowest level since May 2020,” even as “strong consumer spending has kept Main Street alive and supported strong labor demand.”

The bright side, I guess, is that less hiring and tighter credit will work to bring down inflation. So, if you’re a small business or someone who loses a job this year, don’t worry: Your sacrifice could mean core inflation makes it down to 3% instead of the 3.5% it would’ve settled at otherwise.