No ‘Light At Tunnel’s End’ For Taiwan Export Slump

Taiwan has a lot of problems currently, not least of which is that the autocrat across the street — err, across the Strait — is in the market for an island getaway.

Tsai Ing-wen isn’t selling, but Xi Jinping isn’t asking. Or if he is now, he may not be for too much longer.

The PLA on Monday said it completed three days of military drills around Taiwan in response to Tsai’s meeting with Kevin McCarthy last week. Specifically, China said it tested its capabilities “under actual combat conditions,” rehearsed precision strikes and simulated a “blockade situation.”

The exercises, Beijing said, were “successful” and “comprehensive.” In a characteristically hysterical pronouncement masquerading as a statement of preparedness, the PLA declared its troops “ready to fight all the time and any time” for the purposes of “resolutely crushing any form of Taiwan separatism and foreign interference.”

If the threat of invasion wasn’t enough, Taiwan is also grappling with a worsening export slump. Data released Tuesday showed shipments abroad plunged more than 19% in March versus a year ago.

It marked the seventh consecutive decline, and as the visual makes clear, recent drops are large indeed.

This is a function of lackluster global demand, particularly for electronics, and like the PLA, it’s a real threat and isn’t going away anytime soon.

On Tuesday, the head statistician for the island’s statistics bureau said the “light at the end of the tunnel” won’t be visible until Q4. For the second quarter, Taiwan expects exports to fall 15%.

I’ll chance the obvious dark joke: In a “blockade situation,” as the PLA put it, the outlook for the island’s exports would deteriorate meaningfully.

Over the past several days, a patch worn by Taiwanese air force pilots went viral among citizens irritated by Xi’s drills. The badge depicts a Taiwanese black bear punching Winnie the Pooh in the face. In 2018, Xi banned Pooh after too many Chinese compared their president to the beloved storybook character.


 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

4 thoughts on “No ‘Light At Tunnel’s End’ For Taiwan Export Slump

Create a free account or log in

Gain access to read this article

Yes, I would like to receive new content and updates.

10th Anniversary Boutique

Coming Soon