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Featured

Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Lula!

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • It’s A Big Week

    October 25, 2026October 25, 2026

Markets

Credit Canaries

October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • BONDS!!!

    October 22, 2026October 24, 2026
  • Flying Cars, New Share Class Highlight Tesla, Meta Results

    October 21, 2026October 22, 2026

economy

What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026
  • Euphoric Depression

    October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Geopolitics

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

France Can’t Even Save Itself, Let Alone NATO

October 18, 2026October 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Weak Breadth, Broadly Expensive: Stocks See Worst Of Both Worlds

April 3, 2023April 3, 2023

It’s been tempting recently to write off or otherwise dismiss stock buoyancy as the product

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Ungrateful Dollar Users Should Be Careful What They Wish For

April 3, 2023April 4, 2023

I’ll confess to being a bit vexed by the idea that the US is expected

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8 Comments on Ungrateful Dollar Users Should Be Careful What They Wish For

One More Time: It’s Not QE

April 3, 2023

It isn’t QE. “It” is a reference to the latest increase in the Fed’s balance

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2 Comments on One More Time: It’s Not QE

Cartel Business

April 3, 2023July 24, 2023

OPEC+ managed to engineer a modest spike in crude prices after blindsiding markets with a

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10 Comments on Cartel Business

Manufacturing Contraction — The Good Kind

April 3, 2023April 4, 2023

If you were looking for a dovish macro print to support any “last hike” hopes

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2 Comments on Manufacturing Contraction — The Good Kind

Do US Stocks Have A Demand Problem?

April 2, 2023

If a string of US bank failures and the near collapse of Credit Suisse were

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1 Comment on Do US Stocks Have A Demand Problem?

OPEC+ Shocks With Surprise Output Cut At Delicate Juncture

April 2, 2023April 3, 2023

I’m always amused by references to “assurances” from OPEC or, more recently, OPEC+. OPEC is,

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7 Comments on OPEC+ Shocks With Surprise Output Cut At Delicate Juncture

Good News, Bad Banks And The Dollar

April 2, 2023April 2, 2023

The dollar is coming off its worst month since November, when a cooler-than-expected CPI report

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With Banks ‘Stable,’ Traders Look To US Jobs Report

April 2, 2023April 10, 2023

With the US banking system in stable condition thanks to a $150 billion per week

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6 Comments on With Banks ‘Stable,’ Traders Look To US Jobs Report

Credit Monitor: Bank Drama Dents IG Supply, But Returns Recover

April 1, 2023

Thanks to high drama in the financial sector, US investment grade supply was lower than

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Deposit Flight And More Fed Hubris

April 1, 2023April 3, 2023

If only it weren’t stale. Admittedly, I had a hard time getting excited about the

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10 Comments on Deposit Flight And More Fed Hubris

Goldman Sees No 2023 Upside For Stocks Despite Likely Fed Pause

April 1, 2023April 3, 2023

Fed officials would prefer it if you’d countenance another 25bps rate hike — one for

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1 Comment on Goldman Sees No 2023 Upside For Stocks Despite Likely Fed Pause

‘Systemically Important Tech’ Caps Blockbuster Quarter

March 31, 2023March 31, 2023

Earlier this week, I penned an obligatory nod to the new “bull market” in big-cap

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The Entertainment Business

March 31, 2023April 2, 2023

Regular readers know I’m usually the very last person to employ Warren Buffett quotes (indeed,

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16 Comments on The Entertainment Business

No Bank Panic In Michigan Poll. But Recession Vibes Unmistakable

March 31, 2023April 2, 2023

A trio of bank failures had “limited impact on consumer sentiment” this month, Joanne Hsu,

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2 Comments on No Bank Panic In Michigan Poll. But Recession Vibes Unmistakable

Bear Stearns Or LTCM? Fate Of Stocks Depends On The Answer

March 31, 2023March 31, 2023

Buyer beware? This is a challenging moment for investors attempting to discern whether a long-in-the-tooth

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3 Comments on Bear Stearns Or LTCM? Fate Of Stocks Depends On The Answer

US Inflation, Spending Data Cooperates. For Now

March 31, 2023April 1, 2023

Core inflation using the Fed’s preferred gauge rose less than expected last month from January,

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3 Comments on US Inflation, Spending Data Cooperates. For Now

$14 Hershey Bars

March 31, 2023April 1, 2023

If you, like me, have noticed that the price of certain impulse buys in the

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7 Comments on $14 Hershey Bars

At Least It’s Not Getting Worse, Analysts Say, As Fed Borrowing Stabilizes

March 31, 2023

Liquidity needs in the US banking sector are still elevated. That was apparent from another

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Indictment Day

March 30, 2023April 10, 2023

Donald Trump was indicted Thursday by a 23-member special grand jury in Manhattan. Over several

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12 Comments on Indictment Day

Money Market Magnet Attracts $5.2 Trillion

March 30, 2023April 10, 2023

Money market fund assets ballooned to a new record over the last week, closely-watched data

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6 Comments on Money Market Magnet Attracts $5.2 Trillion

Beware The Latent Surge In Jobless Claims

March 30, 2023March 31, 2023

Just take the money! It’s free! If I were a financial advisor (I’m not), that’s

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5 Comments on Beware The Latent Surge In Jobless Claims

My Correlation Is Broken. What Do I Do?

March 30, 2023March 30, 2023

I’ll confess to being a bit concerned by the ongoing incredulity exhibited by stewards of

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1 Comment on My Correlation Is Broken. What Do I Do?

A New Tech Bull Market?

March 30, 2023March 31, 2023

The Nasdaq 100 is in an ostensible bull market. Maybe you heard. I say “ostensible”

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4 Comments on A New Tech Bull Market?

Poor Revisions And A Wide Disparity

March 30, 2023March 30, 2023

The final read on Q4 US GDP found the government revising core PCE price growth

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Evan Gershkovich Is In Trouble With Vladimir Putin

March 30, 2023March 30, 2023

I hate to put it this way, honestly I do, but I don’t see much

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4 Comments on Evan Gershkovich Is In Trouble With Vladimir Putin

This Productivity Boom Is Brought To You By Skynet

March 29, 2023

It’s AI’s world, we just live in it. Or at least that’s the impression you’d

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3 Comments on This Productivity Boom Is Brought To You By Skynet

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • derek on Lula!
  • Frank Talk on Lula!
  • Gimpy on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • T-Dog on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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