Rate Cuts? Maybe. Easing Cycle? No.

"This time" is famously "never different," but this cycle certainly is. It's been a generation since the Fed was forced to engage in a serious effort to combat runaway inflation, and in addition to compelling the most aggressive tightening campaign since Paul Volcker, the persistence of price pressures is seen limiting monetary policy's capacity to cushion the economy in the event of a downturn. That's problematic given what markets and economists generally view as very high odds of a recessio