Macron’s China Strategy Backfires As Diplomat Infuriates Baltics

“It is strange to hear an absurd version of the ‘history of Crimea’ from a representative of a country that is scrupulous about its thousand-year history,” Volodymyr Zelensky’s top advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak, said Sunday.

Podolyak was referring to Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, who, in an interview with French television, suggested the Baltic states might not be states, and alluded to the notion that Crimea is rightfully Russia’s.

“There’s no international agreement” on the “effective status” of ex-Soviet states “as sovereign countries,” Lu mused. Whether Crimea is part of Ukraine “depends on how you view the problem,” he added.

Needless to say, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania weren’t amused. The latter’s foreign minister shared the interview on social media. “If anyone is still wondering why the Baltic States don’t trust China to ‘broker peace in Ukraine,’ here’s a Chinese ambassador arguing that Crimea is Russian and our countries’ borders have no legal basis,” he wrote.

Not that the West needed a reminder, but Lu’s remarks were yet another testament to Xi’s non-neutrality, both in the context of the war in Ukraine, and also more generally in the clash of ideals that looks set to define geostrategic relations for the foreseeable future.

Beyond that, though, I think it’s useful to contextualize this by way of Emmanuel Macron’s recent trip to Beijing and, more to the point, his controversial remarks about European autonomy vis-à-vis US foreign policy, and his suggestion that Europe not take a firm stand on the Taiwan flashpoint.

This is, frankly, what happens when you give autocratic regimes an inch — they take a mile. It’s not so much that Macron was “wrong” in suggesting Europe be careful about pre-committing to a position on a conflict that hasn’t happened yet, it’s that you have to be cognizant that autocracies are everywhere and always looking for an opening. Macron gave Xi an opening earlier this month. Lu is now exploiting it.

“By insisting on the need for Europe to build its strategic autonomy, to oppose the confrontation of blocs and to defend its own interests, he only spoke great truths and reaffirmed coherent points of view,” Lu declared, praising Macron’s remarks about Taiwan in an April 18 statement.

Fast forward three days, and Lu was on French television questioning the independence of former Soviet states and suggesting that Crimea might rightfully belong to Vladimir Putin.

“We stress our full solidarity with all of our allies and partners concerned, who have gained their long-awaited independence after decades of oppression,” a spokesperson from the French foreign ministry said, in response to Lu. “The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 is illegal under international law.”

Macron should learn from this experience. Even if his stance on Taiwan is practical, he should confine his “great truths,” as Lu put it, to private conversations with G7 leaders so his remarks don’t become propaganda coups for authoritarians.


 

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3 thoughts on “Macron’s China Strategy Backfires As Diplomat Infuriates Baltics

  1. I remember watching the annual military parade on the Champs-Elysee with a French friend, around 1999. He turned to me and said “we are a little rooster, walking around with our breast protruding” (translating from memory). Xi must have thought “little rooster for my pot” when meeting with Macron.

  2. France is a country that is in denial about ww2. They have a history of thinking they can control Germany. De Gaulle didn’t want the UK in the common market. Being on the “winning side” of WW2 didn’t help France or Italy as far as their contact with reality. Whereas Germany and Japan made enormous progress because they had to. Maybe Macron thinks he can manipulate China. I don’t…

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