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Category: Markets

Optimism (The Generic Kind)

August 25, 2020August 25, 2020

Predictably, market participants (both carbon-based and otherwise), chased headlines around a phone call between Bob

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3 Comments on Optimism (The Generic Kind)

Exxon Was Having A Bad Enough Year Without Getting Kicked Out Of The Dow

August 24, 2020August 24, 2020

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. In what can only be described as a sign

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6 Comments on Exxon Was Having A Bad Enough Year Without Getting Kicked Out Of The Dow

No Going Back (Squaring The Circle)

August 24, 2020August 25, 2020

It’s a broken record, but squaring financial asset prices with reality is becoming an increasingly

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2 Comments on No Going Back (Squaring The Circle)

Very, Very Well? Desperate Renters, Cash-Strapped Landlords Beg To Differ

August 24, 2020August 24, 2020

“Most of the country is doing very, very well”, Donald Trump said Monday, speaking in

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Apple Eats World (And Nobody Cares About Warren Buffett)

August 24, 2020August 24, 2020

The world is supposed to eat apples. Instead, Apple is eating the world. Or at

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2 Comments on Apple Eats World (And Nobody Cares About Warren Buffett)

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson: ‘Growth Scare, Rates Scare’ To Trigger ‘First Tradable Correction’ In US Stocks

August 24, 2020August 24, 2020

There’s been no shortage of hand-wringing over the past two weeks (give or take) about

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1 Comment on Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson: ‘Growth Scare, Rates Scare’ To Trigger ‘First Tradable Correction’ In US Stocks

With Crucial Powell Speech On Deck, Consider This ‘Key Nuance’

August 23, 2020August 23, 2020

For markets, the week ahead will likely be defined by what Jerome Powell says about

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2 Comments on With Crucial Powell Speech On Deck, Consider This ‘Key Nuance’

25% Of ‘Temporarily’ Laid Off Americans Will Become Permanently Jobless, Goldman Says

August 23, 2020August 23, 2020

Questions around the scope of the structural damage dealt to the US economy in March

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1 Comment on 25% Of ‘Temporarily’ Laid Off Americans Will Become Permanently Jobless, Goldman Says

Escape From America (European Vacation)

August 23, 2020August 23, 2020

Over the past several months, the rally in the euro quite clearly suggested market participants

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Deutsche’s Kocic On Risk Parity, Policy, And The Intrinsic Fragility Of The Entire Socioeconomic System

August 22, 2020January 23, 2022

Earlier this month, I revisited the risk parity discussion as it relates to the viability

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7 Comments on Deutsche’s Kocic On Risk Parity, Policy, And The Intrinsic Fragility Of The Entire Socioeconomic System

37%: A FAAMG Story

August 22, 2020August 22, 2020

On Saturday morning, I characterized the market as being defined by what amounts to “one

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8 Comments on 378: A FAAMG Story

The Bubble That Never Pops (It’s Been One Trade For Half A Decade)

August 22, 2020August 22, 2020

“We are in a deep recession, yet the stock market has completely blown it off”,

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5 Comments on The Bubble That Never Pops (It’s Been One Trade For Half A Decade)

‘Extremely Highly Confident’

August 21, 2020August 22, 2020

“We intend for this package of tariff reductions to mark just the beginning of a

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2 Comments on ‘Extremely Highly Confident’

Value(less)

August 21, 2020August 24, 2020

It was only “right” that the week should end with another day of outperformance for

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6 Comments on Value(less)

After The Election, Whither King Dollar?

August 21, 2020

The dollar was on track for a weekly gain Friday, as the greenback rose in

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‘Now Booming’: US Economy Gets Good News As Slow Week Grinds To A Close

August 21, 2020August 21, 2020

At least the PMIs are holding up. Following disappointing data out of Europe, where the

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6 Comments on ‘Now Booming’: US Economy Gets Good News As Slow Week Grinds To A Close

In Europe, ‘Fragility’ And ‘Doubt’ Creep Into Data

August 21, 2020August 21, 2020

The European recovery narrative, already under siege from an increasingly disconcerting uptick in coronavirus cases,

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Top-Heavy, ‘Trillionaire’ Tech Rally Draws Jeers Ahead Of Big Gamma Roll-Off

August 20, 2020

Here we go again. It’s probably fair to say that the pro-cyclical rotation witnessed earlier

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2 Comments on Top-Heavy, ‘Trillionaire’ Tech Rally Draws Jeers Ahead Of Big Gamma Roll-Off

What’s Next For An Over-Leveraged Corporate America?

August 20, 2020

Much has been made over the past several months about the impact of massive debt

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2 Comments on What’s Next For An Over-Leveraged Corporate America?

Certainly, Certainly Not

August 20, 2020August 20, 2020

Two doesn’t make a trend, I suppose, but coming as it does after a miss

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9 Comments on Certainly, Certainly Not

Fed Didn’t ‘Exacerbate Moral Hazard’ With Treasury Market ‘Intervention’, Fed Finds

August 20, 2020August 20, 2020

By The New York Fed (via Liberty Street Economics) In response to disorderly market conditions

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3 Comments on Fed Didn’t ‘Exacerbate Moral Hazard’ With Treasury Market ‘Intervention’, Fed Finds

Jobless Claims Jump Back Above 1 Million In Bitter Disappointment

August 20, 2020August 20, 2020

Last week, initial US jobless claims fell below 1 million for the first time since

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Opaque

August 20, 2020August 20, 2020

The July FOMC minutes had an outsized impact on risk sentiment Thursday, as global equities

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Fed Minutes Sketch Contours Of Inflation Framework Change, New Forward Guidance

August 19, 2020August 19, 2020

If the Fed was hoping to stoke inflation expectations as part of a broader effort

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1 Comment on Fed Minutes Sketch Contours Of Inflation Framework Change, New Forward Guidance

$2 Trillin: A Job(s) Well Done

August 19, 2020August 19, 2020

The astounding surge in US stocks from the pandemic lows hit in late March marked

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7 Comments on $2 Trillin: A Job(s) Well Done

Morgan Stanley Has ‘Good News And Bad News’ On Central Bank ‘Dominance’

August 19, 2020August 19, 2020

Are central banks all that matter? Or, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott wondered late last month,

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Target CEO: Correlation Not Causation When It Comes To Free Money And Shopping

August 19, 2020August 19, 2020

“It’s hard to understand what’s going to happen next week, let alone three or four

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6 Comments on Target CEO: Correlation Not Causation When It Comes To Free Money And Shopping

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

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Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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