It’s Official: US Logs Worst Downturn In The History Of Modern Economic Statistics

It’s Official: US Logs Worst Downturn In The History Of Modern Economic Statistics

It's official. America lived through the deepest downturn in the history of modern economic statistics during the second quarter. The US economy contracted an annualized 32.9% over the period, a bit less than the median estimate of -34.5%. The unprecedented nature of the circumstances created considerable ambiguity around the report, which comes on the heels of a 5% contraction in the first quarter. The error bands were wide (the range was -40% to -25% from 73 economists), so the market was os
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4 thoughts on “It’s Official: US Logs Worst Downturn In The History Of Modern Economic Statistics

  1. powerful phrasing and important to answer – confidence in answer may take months / years … quote-> “The game has totally changed. Now, the question is whether (and to what extent) the coronavirus experience has forever altered consumer psychology.”

  2. using these quarterly gdp reports, how is the full year estimate of gdp calculated most commonly? if each quarter is an annualized rate…adding each quarter and divide by 4 to give the full year annulized rate?

  3. I posted about this a couple months back, but a permanent change to consumer psychology seems basically guaranteed now given the “fiscal cliff” policy error. Saving for a rainy day is biological, it’s deep within all of us and engaged with our sense of danger and risk. With tens of millions of Americans now facing near total food, shelter, and health insecurity, to not think that experience will permanently alter behavior is simply naive class blindness.

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