“US CPI data will likely show further disinflation in September,” read the headline on one
Category: economy
US Mortgage Rates Inflect, Rocket Higher
Damn you jobs! Mortgage rates in the US jumped sharply over the last week and
‘This Is How Policy Mistakes Are Created’
On Tuesday, at an ECB event in Frankfurt, Adriana Kugler said she doesn’t know the
Miki’s Revenge (Press Pause, Jay)
The Fed needs to seriously reconsider what’s still, but probably shouldn’t be, a guaranteed November
Fate Of China’s Mega-Rally Depends On Fiscal ‘Big Move’
Perhaps the Chinese government gets the message. At long last. On Wednesday, Zichen Wang published
Hot Toddy!
The US services sector performed — and I’ll opt for an understated adjective in the
US Labor Market At ‘Inflection Point’
Guess what? US jobless claims are still low. Thursday’s initial claims headline printed 225,000, above
Bear Case, Bull Case, End Times
When it comes to the species, I’m a committed bear. The short case for humanity’s
Open House
“Would you ever consider a mortgage?” That was the question posed to me earlier this
US Private Hiring Solid, Pay Growth Tame In Sunny ADP Release
The US labor market’s resilient. Just like US consumers. Those two things — jobs and
Fed’s Labor Market Narrative Intact After Mixed JOLTS Release
Job openings across the world’s largest economy rose above eight million for the first time
US Factory Recession Rolls Into Second Year With Election Looming
The US manufacturing sector just spent another month in contraction. “Breaking news,” I know. No
He Hates These Dots
Jerome Powell spoke Monday at a NABE conference in Nashville, where he said a whole
Results (Still) Pending
The good news is, a marquee measure of US pending home sales no longer sits
Fed Math: 3% Growth, 2.8% Core Inflation, 218k Jobless Claims = 50bps Cuts
If the US labor market’s Clark Griswold driving full-speed through a “road closed” sign on
New Versus ‘Used’: A Tale Of Two Housing Markets
New US home sales held up pretty well in August, data out Wednesday showed, even
Here Come The Refis
After eight straight weekly declines, mortgage rates in the US are close to achieving a
What If The US Consumer Never Totally Breaks?
I’m always on the look out for disparities and contradictions in the macro narrative. Not
I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This
Confidence among American consumers slipped in September. “Slipped” is a bit euphemistic. “Deteriorated” is probably
US Housing Market Is Sad Joke With Incomes 30% Below Affordability Level
Typical homes are hugely expensive. And typical people aren’t especially well-off. You do the math.
Fed Advised To ‘Move Cautiously’ On Cuts As PMI Price Gauges Rise
“The Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target,” S&P Global’s Chris
A BeLabored Point
In his pivotal Jackson Hole address, Jerome Powell said that in his view, it “seems
After The Cut
There’s plenty of data on offer this week across the world’s largest economy. And even
The Garbage Man
Does anybody know what China’s doing? Because I don’t know what China’s doing. And I
Should’ve Bought In Bulk
The fortunate among us have a tendency to extrapolate our own economic circumstances onto everyone
Construction, Rates And The Misnomer That Is ‘Affordable’
Thank lower rates? Maybe. Probably. Sure. New construction data released ahead of the Fed on
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