US Factory Recession Rolls Into Second Year With Election Looming

The US manufacturing sector just spent another month in contraction. “Breaking news,” I know.

No one expected anything different from Tuesday’s update on America’s marquee gauge of factory activity, which printed 47.2 on the headline, slightly below consensus and unchanged from the prior month.

September marked a sixth straight month below the 50 demarcation line and a 23rd in 24. So, US manufacturing’s mired in what, by now, is a two-year-old recession. You don’t hear much about that on the campaign trail. Not from either candidate. Kamala Harris talks about a manufacturing renaissance. Donald Trump talks about cat-eating.

The final read on S&P Global’s gauge for September was a bit better than the flash print, but nevertheless pointed to subdued activity. As the figure shows, the two headlines are now “in agreement,” so to speak.

“The September PMI survey brings a whole slew of disappointing economic indicators regarding the health of the US economy,” S&P Global’s Chris Williamson despaired. New orders were weak. As such, so was production. The employment trend’s negative.

The ISM subindexes were lackluster. The production and new orders gauges improved from August, but remained short of the 50 mark. Notably, the employment gauge dipped back to levels consistent with those that helped spark the early-August growth scare.

Between that — where “that” is an abysmal 43-handle — and a contraction-territory prices paid print, a dovish Fed has plenty to work with.

S&P Global’s Williamson offered a silver lining. Sort of.

“Companies are sensing that at least part of the drop in demand is likely to be temporary, as spending, investment and inventory building have been paused in many cases amid the uncertainty caused by the Presidential election,” he said Tuesday, adding that firms expect lower rates will help “rekindle demand” contingent on an improvement in the “political environment.”


 

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One thought on “US Factory Recession Rolls Into Second Year With Election Looming

  1. I really would like to see more details in terms of the sectors being affected. Which part of ‘manufacturing’ is suffering vs. what’s doing well…

    For example, chip making seems okay while I imagine that construction related industries might struggle? Do we have that data somewhere in the ISM ?

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