Job openings across the world’s largest economy rose above eight million for the first time since May.
That’s according to Tuesday’s closely-watched JOLTS release from the BLS, which tallied openings as of the last business day of August.
Consensus expected 7.66 million from the headline. Markets got 8.04 million instead.
The increase from the prior month, 329,000, was the first in three reports. Hires were 5.317 million from a downwardly-revised 5.42 million. That series remains near post-pandemic lows.
It’d be strange (which is to say erroneous) to suggest the data somehow isn’t consequential for the policy narrative given the Fed’s operating on a de facto single labor market mandate now. But with the key openings-to-unemployed ratio having largely normalized, the scope for the JOLTS release to move the needle is diminished — the Fed doesn’t expect much more blood from this particular stone.
With Tuesday’s update, the jobs-to-jobless ratio stands at 1.13.
As the figure shows, that’s up marginally from the prior month, but not enough for anyone to notice or care.
What policymakers — who aren’t averse to cherry-picking, by the way — probably will care about, though, is a new post-pandemic low for the quit rate. Tuesday’s refresh saw that metric decline to 1.9%.
This release marks the first sub-2% reading on the quit rate since June of 2020, and the lowest reading since the summer of 2015 outside of the COVID-era distortions.
Total quits were 3.084 million, the fewest in four years. Layoffs remained subdued.
Again, I don’t see anything here that’s going to change any minds among Fed officials. Yes, openings rose, but between fewer hires and falling quits, the report was amenable to the Fed’s preferred narrative, which is to say compatible with a generally dovish policy bent.
Do note: The jump in openings (i.e., labor demand) was down to construction and government hiring.




