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Vote 50
Ask and you shall receive.
America's fiercely independent, proudly apolitical central bank was bles
Given the Fed’s desire to be as apolitical as possible, I don’t blame them for over communicating the amount of the next interest rate move. The move is now in front of (and not behind) the election.
Looking at the months that will drop out of the L12M sample, at current MOM, core PCE YOY will take a step down next month (when Sep 2023’s 0.3% MOM drops out) and another step down in 1Q (when Jan 2024’s 0.5% MOM drops out).
If MOM stays 0.150% or lower, then by end 1Q25 core PCE YOY should be under 2%.
If MOM is 0.165%, then in 2Q core PCE YOY should be appx 2%.
Revised consumer income, savings, etc data argues against 50.