“Would you ever consider a mortgage?”

That was the question posed to me earlier this week when, unable to help myself, I stopped by an open house for a condo located smack dab in what, for this city, counts as a “swanky” area. The suburbs are being developed rapidly, and I knew these particular condos — all white brick, stamped concrete driveways, natural gas lanterns on either side of impressive front doors and so on — would be a good barometer for just how rapacious upscale builders are amid what really is an unprecedented boom for this area. I spent a good portion of my “better” years in and around this town, and it’s never seen anything like the current rate of price appreciation.

“‘Cause I got a girl down at —” I stopped him. “I’m sure she’s great. But I’m past the mortgage phase. Look at me, I’m old!” He didn’t seem to appreciate the joke. He had a decade on me if he had a day. It was 2:30 in the afternoon. He was working. I wasn’t. That “math” isn’t difficult to do.

“There’s a lot to like about it,” I said, plodding back down the stairs. I wasn’t lying. There was a lot to like about it. 10 years ago, It would’ve suited me just fine. High-end appliances, engineered hardwood in every room, wonderful master bath and impressively high ceilings for a condo. But I wasn’t actually interested. That’s not my aesthetic anymore, the suburbs give me nightmares and my downtown loft makes me feel younger than I am: I’m not dead yet! I haven’t given up! I’m still cool! Just ask this exposed brick and these overpriced Touch of Modern gadgets.

“How much are you wantin’ for it?” I had to humor him. I don’t like wasting people’s time. Even when I’m definitely wasting their time. $893,000. That was the answer. I can hear the pitch: “Don’t wait! Increase your beta to a charmingly cultureless, traffic-plagued fourth-tier ‘city’ with this objectively decent suburban retreat. You’ll enjoy ready access to the ‘modern’ miracle that is IMAX, a Nike outlet, a passable dog park arranged around a clean-ish creek, a Publix and a Fleming’s, for when you want to show off your finest Jos. A. Bank. All that for just……… $900,000!”

US mortgage rates stopped falling over the last week on the MBA’s gauge. The slight uptick — to 6.14% — was the first since early July.

Rates have, of course, come down dramatically alongside a multi-month rally in US Treasurys.

As reader after reader pointed out ahead of the September FOMC meeting, rate cuts are already “in the price,” so to speak. I doubt most would-be homeowners waiting around for additional rates relief understand that. That’s not — at all — to suggest rates can’t fall further. It’s just to say that you’re going to need an extension of what’s already a five-month long-end rally. That’ll probably require weaker US macro data, some manner of risk-off episode in markets or both.

The other takeaway from Wednesday’s MBA release was an increase in purchase activity. The index, shown below, rose a sixth week to the highest since Valentine’s Day.

Refis, which have surged, stalled a bit, leading to a decline in overall applications, but as MBA SVP Mike Fratantoni remarked, “The news for the week was that more homebuyers appear to be entering the market.” The purchase index shown above rose 9% YoY.

“Inventories of both new and existing homes have been increasing over the course of 2024, meaning that potential buyers have properties to look at,” Fratantoni went on, adding that thanks to the decline in rates, buyers “now have somewhat… better affordability.”

With that in mind, if you’re in the market for a decent condo, a pair of discounted Nikes and a Fleming’s Tomahawk, I can point you in the right direction. Bring a quarter million dollars. You’ll need it for the downpayment.