Here’s a chicken-egg quandary for you: Which came first, US macro exceptionalism or US equity
Category: economy
How America’s Housing Crisis Fueled A Boom In Stocks And Crypto
I wrote earlier Friday about US housing. Again. Again squared. Then cubed. The vexing circumstances
In US Housing: The Worst Year Since 1995
Now we’re gettin’ somewhere! Maybe lose the exclamation point, though. Existing home sales in the
Oops! US Services Sector Activity Cools Dramatically
“Output growth slows in January and price pressures rise,” S&P Global said Friday, summarizing what
Japan Beats Deflation. Now What About China?
There’s good news for China: It is possible to exit deflation. It just takes a
Overblown Claims
Initial US jobless claims rose a second week, handily topping estimates in the process, according
US Home Purchases Fall Through At Record Rate On Cost Burden
Hopelessly-stretched would-be US homeowners caught a small break over the last week, as financing costs
Trump’s Term Premium Problem
2025’s not 2017. The distinction matters for the Trump administration’s domestic policy agenda, and specifically
Trump Inherits Goldilocks US Economy In ‘Sweet Spot’
“There’s a Goldilocks flavor to it.” So said Goldman’s Jan Hatzius in a note published
‘Tariff Man’ Eschews Day One Tariffs
“Tariff Man” isn’t imposing any new tariffs. Yet. Donald Trump won’t slap the world with
Population Frustration
Demographics: They matter. For all kinds of reasons, not least of which is that if
Great 2020s Bond Bear Makes History
History. You’re witnessing it. You witness history by default, every day, but when we carry
Xi Or Your Lyin’ Eyes?
“Overall, the recovery is tentatively sustained in a still-fragile mode.” So said SocGen’s Wei Yao
Avoid The Tails, Stick The Landing
For traders and investors (and yes, those are two distinct classes of market participants), the
America’s Homebuilders Can’t Shake The Gloom
As you might imagine given the steady rise in rates since October, homebuilder sentiment in
Have Jobs, Will Spend
The last of this week’s top-tier US macro data found retail sales disappointing on the
America’s ‘Normal Economic People’ Still Screwed By Inflation
I’m not sure I’d call Wednesday’s all-important inflation update out of the US “comforting.” Although
Wholesale Price Growth Slows In Welcome News For Battered Bonds
Good news for the melancholic, inflation fatalists among you (I should say “among us” considering
On Eve Of Trump’s Return, China’s Trade ‘Winnings’ Reach $1 Trillion
China’s a reverse Art Vandelay: “Just exports, no imports?” On Monday, Beijing released trade figures
The Chilly Truth Behind China’s 5% Growth
China’s set to release a raft of key data this week, including the full-year GDP
Fed Prays For Inflation Reprieve
The Fed could really — really — use a break on the inflation front. Policymakers
In Ominous Development, US Inflation Expectations Soar To Highest Since 2008
Uh oh. A closely-watched measure of medium- and longer-term inflation expectations printed 3.3% in the
US Jobs, Comin’ In Hot!
Look out! US payrolls are comin’ in hot. The US economy added 256,000 jobs last
In China, The Great Deep Freeze Continues
China: It’s not going well. Still. It’s still not going well for the world’s second-largest
Rekindled Inflation And Fear Of The Great Unknown
At the risk of stating the obvious (and for the umpteenth time), one of the
US Jobless Claims Just Collapsed
US jobless claims were — umm — very, very low in the week to January
Private Hiring Cools In America
Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December, ADP said Wednesday, describing a “modest” pace of
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