As promised, the Trump administration’s bringing down borrowing costs for families. One recessionary data point at a time.

US mortgage rates are now “just” 6.67%, tied for the lowest since October, after a sixth straight weekly decline.

The reprieve helped catalyze a meaningful increase in both purchase apps and refis.

As the figure shows, rates haven’t risen since mid-January.

One one hand, this is good news, especially ahead of the spring homebuying season. Rates are now nearly half a point off the highs, not enough to rescue most sidelined buyers from a nightmarish affordability crisis, but every little bit helps I suppose.

On the other hand, the decline is in no small part attributable to a spate of lackluster US economic data, both “soft” and “hard,” which suggests the Trump administration’s policies have undercut sentiment, spending and investment. Already. The White House says that’s by design to the extent it’s a reflection of an effort to “re-privatize” an economy Trump and Scott Bessent describe as “fake.”

In January, Bessent communicated that rather than bullying Jerome Powell into cutting the Fed funds rate, Trump would focus on bringing down 10-year bond yields instead. Not a terrible idea, particularly considering the source. And it’s working. Benchmark US borrowing costs are down more than 50bps since mid-January amid a growing chorus of slowdown warnings.

Long story short, Bessent and Elon Musk are making the American dream more affordable for everyday people like them by engineering a shallow recession for the broader economy and mass joblessness for federal workers, whose livelihoods were upended this year by Musk’s civil service purge.

In the MBA survey, activity showed a gain across all loan categories and the average loan size touched $460,800, which the release noted is “the highest in the survey dating back to 1990.” That speaks to the other side of the affordability equation: Prices.

Recall that pending home sales crashed to a new record low in January on the NAR’s index, and Redfin’s real-time data suggests the situation hasn’t improved despite the decline in financing costs. Contract activity was down 6.4% YoY in the four weeks to March 2, Dana Anderson said late last week, adding that “sales are sluggish because the median US sale price is up 3.2%, and the typical homebuyer’s monthly housing payment is just $26 shy of its all-time high.”

As ever, I’d gently suggest that the problem isn’t financing costs — there’s nothing especially cruel about a 6.5% rate on a three-decade loan for half a million dollars to people who, let’s face it, by and large have no business borrowing half a million dollars — but rather prices.

Simply put: If you create the conditions whereby shelter’s either unaffordable or, where it is “affordable,” only because borrowers are allowed to lever up five, 10 and 20 times at artificially-suppressed rates, you’re asking for a homelessness crisis and, eventually, societal instability.

In the same linked Redfin update, Anderson noted that in addition to affordability challenges, “some prospective buyers are wary about making a big purchase amid economic uncertainty, including concerns about tariffs, slowing economic growth and layoffs.”