Bad news: Consumer confidence in America deteriorated more than expected in March, according to Tuesday’s most notable US macro release.

The headline print on the Conference Board’s gauge was a wholly unfortunate 92.9, below the 94 consensus and the worst reading in more than four years.

This was, at the risk of trafficking in the kind of bearish hyperbole I swore off years ago, a God-awful release. The 7.2-point drop from February’s upwardly revised headline was the second-largest month-to-month decline since the onset of the pandemic.

Over just four months, the gauge has tumbled almost 20ppt, a huge deterioration indicative of a Wile E. Coyote gravity moment for sentiment, if not perhaps for the real economy (this is “soft” data, after all).

Note that the headline index is now below the range that prevailed since the Fed escalated the inflation fight in mid-2022. Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at the Conference Board, described households’ outlook as “especially gloomy.”

The expectations gauge printed 65.2. Folks, that’s horrible. Although not especially reliable post-pandemic, the “rule” says readings below 80 are associated with a recession over the subsequent 12 months. March’s read was the worst in a dozen years, and it undershot consensus by 8ppt. Insult to injury: The present situation index missed too.

Guichard went on to lament a sudden turn in consumers’ outlook for their future income prospects. That measure “had held up quite strongly” this year despite the headline gloom, but the bottom fell out this month “suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” as the release put it.

Demographically, only consumers younger than 35 expressed a more upbeat assessment of their current situation, and even there the improvement was “slight.” The biggest decline was observed among those 55 and older suggesting, perhaps, that threats (real or imagined) to Social Security might be weighing on psychology. The Conference Board described the drop this month as “broad-based across income groups” with one exception: Households making more than $125,000 a year.

Notably, buying intentions for “big-ticket items” actually improved, a development the release called “surprising given the anxiety about the future.” On the contrary, it’s not surprising at all. The reason consumers expressed an inclination to buy “appliances and electronics” sooner rather than later is they suspect “Tariff Man” and his grand strategy may ultimately result in higher prices for durables.

Apropos, year-ahead inflation expectations, at 6.2%, were the highest in nearly two years.